Forecast of Global Supply and Demand Trends for Petrochemical Products (for the period from 2003 to 2016)
The Study Group on Global Supply and Demand Trends for Petrochemical Products (managed by the Manufacturing Industries Bureau’s Chemical Division working as its secretariat) has completed a study on trends up to the year 2016 in global demand and supply of petrochemical products, such as ethylene derivatives, propylene derivatives, and aromatic products (demand and production capacity, and volume).
Despite the impact of the global economic slowdown and the continually high prices of oil and petroleum products, demand growth is notable in Asia, especially in China and India. Against this background, in terms of production, plans for new and additional facilities are continuously being developed, mainly in the Middle East, China, and India. In terms of demand, growth in Asia, particularly in China and India is notable, and the ratio of demand in this region to overall worldwide demand is increasing. Thus, the influence of trends in the Asian market on the worldwide market is increasing.
Regarding the supply-demand balance of ethylene derivatives, excess supply peaked in 2008 (about 2.5 million tons). Thereafter, supply and demand moved toward equilibrium according to the increase in demand, and it is expected that supply will fall short in the future. It is possible that more plans for new and additional facilities currently under consideration will be completed. As for the supply-demand balance of propylene derivatives, it is expected that the excess supply will peak at about 4.9 million tons in 2012, and the excess supply will gradually decrease thereafter, in direct relation to the increases in demand.
Petrochemical products will be in a state of excess supply over demand in the short term. Although it is expected that the excess supply will diminish and move toward equilibrium in the long term, sufficient attention is necessary for possible changes in the situation according to world economic trends in the future and the progress of plant expansion. Under the continuous trends of production increases in the Middle East, China and India, and demand increases in China and India, it must also be noted that changes in the situation of the regional economy are having greater impact on supply and demand trends throughout the world.
June 5, 2012
Division in Charge
Chemicals Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau
The Study Group on Global Supply and Demand Trends for Petrochemical Products
- In the midst of the changing environment surrounding domestic petrochemical industries, Japan should properly examine and analyze supply and demand trends for petrochemical products inside and outside Japan, leading to study of business management, policies and other factors focusing on the global environment. From this viewpoint, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) created the “Study Group on Global Supply and Demand Trends for Petrochemical Products” in 1997 (Secretariat: Chemicals Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau, METI; Members: people involved in petrochemical industries, finance, trading companies and other areas).
- The study group has created a working group exclusively for reviewing and collecting data on forecasts of petrochemical product supply and demand trends, plant operations, and other issues inside and outside Japan for the purpose of creating a report on expected global supply and demand trends for petrochemical products until 2016, including supply and demand, production capacity and production amount.
Note: For details, see the report “Forecast of Global Supply and Demand Trends for Petrochemical Products” the following website:
http://www.meti.go.jp/press/2012/06/20120605004/20120605004-2.pdf (PDF:419KB) (in Japanese)