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- April 2013
- Steel Demand Prospect for the First Quarter of FY2013 (April–June 2013)
Total steel demand for the first quarter of FY2013 (April-June 2013) is estimated to be 23.49 million tons, a 2.3% decrease from the previous quarter (forecast result) due to a decrease in domestic demand and a decrease in exports of ordinary steel. The sector-by-sector breakdown is as follows.
| Construction: | Steel demand will slightly decrease from the previous quarter (forecasted result) primarily because of a decrease in construction activities due to seasonal factors. However, the demand will increase on a year-on-year basis due to an increase in public construction activities related to reconstruction of the areas devastated by the Great East Japan Earthquake and due to the steady performance continuing in building activities. |
|---|---|
| Manufacturing: | Steel demand will decrease from the previous quarter (forecasted results) because of a decrease in domestic car sales due to seasonal factors and a decrease in shipbuilding, which is structurally in a state of oversupply. |
| Steel export: | Exports of ordinary steel will remain at the very high level, continuing from the previous quarter, and increase on a year-on-year basis, while steel demand will slightly decrease from the previous quarter because of a decrease in exports of ordinary steel due to the shipping schedule of a maker. |
Crude steel demand for the period will stand at 26.38 million tons, down by 0.9% from the level of the previous quarter (forecasted result), expecting a decrease in steel demand, progress of steel inventory adjustment, and a decrease in imports of steel
Steel Demand Prospects for the First Quarter of FY2013 (April-June 2013)
(Unit: million tons)
| Total Steel | Ordinary Steel | Special Steel | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steel Demand | 23.49 | 18.89 | 4.61 |
| Year-on-year change | (24.04) -2.3% | (18.75) +0.7% | (5.29) -12.8% |
| Change compared with the previous quarter's forecast | (24.06) -2.3% | (1943) -2.8% | (4.63) -0.4% |
| 1) Domestic Demand | 14.70 | 11.68 | 3.02 |
| Year-on-year change | (15.58) -5.6% | (12.12) -3.6% | (3.46) -12.7% |
| Change compared with the previous quarter's forecast | (15.18) -3.2% | (12.11) -3.6% | (3.07) -1.6% |
| 2) Export | 8.80 | 7.21 | 1.59 |
| Year-on-year change | (8.46) +4.0% | (6.63) + 8.7% | (1.83) -13.1% |
| Change compared with the previous quarter's forecast | (8.88) -1.0% | (7.32) -1.6% | (1.56) +2.1% |
References:
| Crude steel demand equivalent to shipment: 26.38 million tons | |
|---|---|
| Year-on-year change: | (27.50 million tons) -4.1% |
| Change from the previous quarter's forecast: | (26.62 million tons) -0.9% |
| Ordinary steel: Inventory of makers and wholesalers | |
|---|---|
| Inventory of makers and wholesalers (end-March forecast): 6.34 million tons; | Inventory turnover: 1.01 months |
| Inventory for domestic market among the above inventory (end- March forecast): 5.35 million tons; | Inventory turnover: 1.39 months |
Note: The figures in parenthesis show the quantity for the same period of the previous year or the previous quarter's forecast for comparison purposes (in millions of tons)
Reference for Demand Prospects (First Quarter of FY2013 (April-June 2013))
1. Trends in Crude Steel Production (Unit: thousand tons)
| FY2008 | FY2009 | FY2010 | FY2011 | FY2012 | FY2013 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Q | 31,060 | 19,093 | 28,067 | 26,368 | 27,498 | 26,377 |
| 2Q | 30,448 | 24,236 | 27,357 | 26,950 | 27,260 | |
| 3Q | 26,397 | 26,609 | 27,665 | 26,579 | 25,909 | |
| 4Q | 17,596 | 26,511 | 27,704 | 26,566 | 26,618 | |
| Total | 105,500 | 96,449 | 110,792 | 106,462 | 107,285 | 26,377 |
Note 1) The data for the fourth quarter of FY2012 is the forecast result and the data for the first quarter of FY2013 represents prospects.
2. Ordinary Steel: Sector-by-Sector Domestic Consumption (Unit: thousand tons)
| Sector | FY 2012 1Q Consumption Forecast | FY 2012 4Q Consumption Forecast | FY 2013 1Q Prospects | Year-on- Year Change | Change Compared with the Previous Quarter's Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | Total | 4,648 | 5,089 | 4,919 | 5.8% | -3.3% |
| Civil Engineering | 1,235 | 1,607 | 1,348 | 9.1% | -16.1% | |
| Architecture | 3,413 | 3,482 | 3,571 | 4.6% | 2.6% | |
| Manufacturing | Total | 7,472 | 7,021 | 6,761 | -9.5% | -3.7% |
| Shipbuilding | 1,225 | 981 | 929 | -24.2% | -5.3% | |
| Motors Vehicles | 3,025 | 2,892 | 2,735 | -9.6% | -5.4% | |
| Industrial Machinery | 1,231 | 1,138 | 1,159 | -5.8% | 1.8% | |
| Electrical Machinery | 745 | 759 | 726 | -2.6% | -4.3% | |
| Secondary Products | 604 | 630 | 601 | -0.5% | -4.6% | |
| Containers | 335 | 328 | 332 | -0.9% | 1.2% | |
| Other | 307 | 293 | 279 | -9.1% | -4.8% | |
| Total | 12,120 | 12,110 | 11,680 | -3.6% | -3.6% | |
Note 2) The quantity is estimated mainly based on demand-related statistics.
Release Date
April 02, 2013
Division in Charge
Iron and Steel Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau