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Steel Demand Prospects for the Third Quarter of FY 2015 (October-December 2015)

Total steel demand for the third quarter of FY 2015 (October-December 2015) is estimated to be 24.07 million tons, a slight 0.5% increase from the previous quarter and a 2.1% decrease on a year-on-year basis. The sector-by-sector breakdown is as follows:

Domestic demand

  • Construction:

    Steel demand in civil engineering will increase from the previous quarter due to seasonal factors and that in architecture will slightly increase. On a year-on-year basis, demand in civil engineering will remain flat while that in architecture will slightly increase because demand in housing construction is showing a tendency of recovery while the gradual recovery of capital investment is also expected. Demand in the overall construction sector will slightly increase on a year-on-year basis.

  • Manufacturing:

    Steel demand in the manufacturing sector will remain flat. On a year-on-year basis, demand in motor vehicles will increase as a result of recovery from the negative repercussions triggered by the consumption tax hike. Demand in shipbuilding will decrease. Demand in industrial machinery will decrease as well due to the negative repercussions after a rush demand before the enforcement of the emissions regulations on construction machinery. Demand in the overall manufacturing sector will slightly increase on a year-on-year basis.

Steel exports:

Steel exports will decrease from the previous quarter and on a year-on-year basis. The decrease will be caused by various unfavorable factors, including sluggish automobile demand in ASEAN and other Asian countries, a reduction in energy-related exports, and an excess supply of steel products in Asia.

Crude steel demand for this quarter is estimated to be 26.53 million tons, increasing by 0.7% from the previous quarter but decreasing by 3.7% on a year-on-year basis.

Steel Demand Prospects for the Third Quarter of FY 2015 (October-December 2015)

(Unit: million tons)
Total Steel
Ordinary Steel Special Steel
Steel Demand 24.07 19.38 4.69
Year-on-year change (24.58) -2.1% (19.45) -0.3% (5.13) -8.6%
Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast (23.95) +0.5% (19.30) +0.4% (4.65) +1.0%
1) Domestic Demand 16.09 12.93 3.16
Year-on-year change (16.33) -1.5% (12.95) -0.2% (3.38) -6.5%
Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast (15.70) +2.5% (12.60) +2.6% (3.10) +1.9%
2) Export 7.98 6.45 1.53
Year-on-year change (8.25) -3.3% (6.50) -0.7% (1.75) -12.7%
Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast (8.25) -3.2% (6.70) +3.7% (1.55) +1.0%

References:

Crude steel demand equivalent to shipment: 26.53 million tons
Year-on-year change: (27.54 million tons) -3.7%
Change from the previous quarter’s forecast: (26.36 million tons) +0.7%

Ordinary steel: Inventory of makers and wholesalers
Inventory of makers and wholesalers (end-September forecast): 6.60 million tons; inventory turnover: 1.08 months
Inventory for domestic market among the above inventory (end- September forecast): 5.63 million tons; inventory turnover: 1.46 months

  • Note 1:

    The figures in parentheses show the quantity for the same period of the previous year or the previous quarter’s forecast for comparison purposes (in millions of tons).

  • Note 2:

    The total steel amount does not always correspond to the combination of subtotals since those figures are calculated per thousand tons.

References for Demand Prospects (Third Quarter of FY 2015 (October-December 2015))

1. Trends in Crude Steel Production (Unit: thousand tons)

FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015
1Q 31,060 19,093 28,067 26,368 27,498 28,081 27,672 25,855
2Q 30,448 24,236 27,357 26,950 27,260 27,737 27,891 26,358
3Q 26,397 26,609 27,665 26,579 25,909 28,139 27,537 26,530
4Q 17,596 26,510 27,705 26,566 26,638 27,567 26,745
Total 105,500 96,448 110,793 106,462 107,305 111,524 109,844 78,743

Note 1: The data for the second quarter of FY 2015 is the forecasted result and the data for the third quarter of FY 2015 represents prospects.

2. Ordinary Steel: Sector-by-Sector Domestic Consumption (Unit: thousand tons)

Sector FY2014 3Q actual consumption FY2015 2Q consumption forecast FY2015 3Q prospects Year-on- year change Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast
Construction 5,764 5,507 5,824 1.0 % 5.8%
Civil Engineering 1,949 1,685 1,939 - 0.5 % 15.1%
Architecture 3,815 3,822 3,885 1.8 % 1.6%
Manufacturing 7,186 7,093 7,106 - 1.1 % 0.2%
Shipbuilding 1,100 1,077 1,077 - 2.1 % 0.0%
Motor Vehicles 2,724 2,726 2,733 0.3% 0.3%
Industrial Machinery 1,362 1,355 1,339 - 1.7% - 1.2%
Electrical Machinery 758 755 738 - 2.6% - 2.3%
Secondary Products 604 582 607 0.5% 4.3%
Containers 324 290 302 - 6.8% 4.1%
Other 314 308 310 - 1.3% 0.6%
Total 12,950 12,600 12,930 - 0.2% 2.6%

Note 2: The quantity is estimated mainly based on demand-related statistics.

Release date

October 5, 2015

Division in charge

Iron and Steel Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau

Related Information

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