METI
Font Size Change
S
M
L
Easy Web Browsing tool

Steel Demand Prospects for the Third Quarter of FY 2016 (October-December 2016)

Total steel demand for the third quarter of FY 2016 (October-December 2016) is estimated to be 24.19 million tons, an increase by 0.6%, remaining flat from the previous quarter, and a slight increase by 1.8% on a year-on-year basis. The sector-by-sector breakdown is as follows:

Domestic demand:

  • Construction:
    • Steel demand in the construction sector will increase for civil engineering from the previous quarter due to seasonal factors. On a year-on-year basis, demand in the construction sector overall will remain flat since demand in the architecture sector is expected to show signs of picking up due to low-interest rates of home loans for home owners in the housing industry, and other factors.
  • Manufacturing:
    • Steel demand in the manufacturing sector will remain flat from the previous quarter due to recovery in production after the shutdown of automobile plants affected by the earthquakes that occurred in Kumamoto Prefecture, while demand for construction machinery will decrease as a reaction to the end of the last-minute demand caused by emissions regulations. On a year-on-year basis, demand in the manufacturing sector will increase slightly since demand in automobiles will recover following the end of the negative effects triggered by the consumption tax hike.

Steel exports:

Steel exports will remain flat from the previous quarter. On a year-on-year basis, steel exports will increase due to an increase in contracts won in energy-related business, while the influence of foreign exchange and other elements and the current situation involving low crude-oil prices can be seen.

Crude steel demand for this quarter is estimated to be 26.58 million tons, increasing by 0.2% from the previous quarter and also increasing by 0.9% on a year-on-year basis.

Steel Demand Prospects for the Third Quarter of FY2016 (October-December 2016)
(Unit: million tons)
  Total Steel
  Ordinary Steel Special Steel
Steel Demand 24.19 19.20 4.99
  Year-on-year change (23.77) +1.8% (19.07) +0.7% (4.69) +6.3%
Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast (24.05) +0.6% (19.23) −0.2% (4.82) +3.6%
1) Domestic Demand 15.73 12.55 3.18
Year-on-year change (15.66) +0.4% (12.41) +1.1% (3.25) −2.2%
Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast (15.62) +0.7% (12.48) +0.6% (3.14) +1.0%
2) Export 8.46 6.65 1.81
Year-on-year change (8.11) +4.3% (6.66) −0.2% (1.45) +25.2%
Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast (8.42) +0.5% (6.75) −1.5% (1.67) +8.4%

References:

  • Crude steel demand equivalent to shipment: 26.58 million tons
    • Year-on-year change: (26.33 million tons) +0.9%
    • Change from the previous quarter’s forecast: (26.52 million tons) +0.2%
  • Ordinary steel: Inventory of makers and wholesalers
    • Inventory of makers and wholesalers (end-September forecast): 6.69 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.11 months
    • Inventory for domestic market from the above inventory (end-September forecast): 5.55 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.47 months
  • Notes:
    • The figures in parenthesis show the quantity for the same period of the previous year or the previous quarter’s forecast for comparison purposes (in millions of tons).
    • The total steel amount does not always correspond to the combination of subtotals since those figures are calculated per thousand tons.

Reference for Demand Prospects (Third Quarter of FY2016 (October-December 2016))

1. Trends in Crude Steel Production (Unit: thousand tons)
  FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016
1Q 26,368 27,498 28,081 27,672 25,858 26,210
2Q 26,950 27,260 27,737 27,891 26,197 26,518
3Q 26,579 25,909 28,139 27,537 26,335 26,580
4Q 26,566 26,638 27,567 26,745 25,839  
Total 106,462 107,305 111,524 109,844 104,229  

Note 1) Data for the second quarter of FY2016 is the forecast result and the data for the third quarter of FY2016 represents production prospects.

2. Ordinary Steel: Sector-by-Sector Domestic Consumption (Unit: thousand tons)
Sector FY 2015 3Q Actual Consumption FY 2016 2Q Consumption Forecast FY 2016 3Q Prospects  
Year-on- Year Change Change Compared with the Previous Quarter’s Forecast
Construction 5,649 5,624 5,680 0.5% 1.0%
  Civil Engineering 1,917 1,709 1,930 0.7% 12.9%
  Architecture 3,732 3,915 3,750 0.5% −4.2%
Manufacturing 6,761 6,856 6,870 1.6% 0.2%
  Shipbuilding 1,061 1,053 1,045 −1.5% −0.8%
  Motor Vehicles 2,673 2,694 2,746 2.7% 1.9%
  Industrial Machinery 1,137 1,201 1,174 3.3% −2.2%
  Electrical Machinery 724 752 728 0.6% −3.2%
  Secondary Products 572 566 581 1.6% 2.7%
  Containers 299 291 290 −3.0% −0.3%
  Other 295 299 306 3.7% 2.3%
Total 12,410 12,480 12,550 1.1% 0.6%

Note 2) Quantities estimated mainly based on demand-related statistics.

Trends in Crude Steel Production
(Unit: Ten thousand tons)
(Prospects) 3Q
(Consumption forecast) 2Q

Release date

October 6, 2016

Division in Charge

Metal Industries Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau

Related Information

Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry1-3-1 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8901, Japan Tel: +81-(0)3-3501-1511
Copyright Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. All Rights Reserved.