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Steel Demand Prospects for the Second Quarter of FY2017 (July-September 2017)

Total steel demand for the second quarter of FY2017 (July-September 2017) is estimated to be 23.84 million tons, an increase of 2.8% from the previous quarter, and a decrease by 1.6% on a year-on-year basis. The sector-by-sector breakdown is as follows:

Domestic demand:

  • Construction:
    Steel demand will increase in the construction sector as a whole from the previous quarter as demand for civil engineering and architecture is expected to increase due to seasonal factors. On a year-on-year basis, steel demand will remain flat in the construction sector as a whole, in contrast to the early enforcement of the FY2016 budget ahead of the initial schedule in the public civil-engineering sector, while demand for non-housing construction will show steady performance in urban redevelopment and distribution facilities projects.
  • Manufacturing:
    Steel demand in the manufacturing sector will slightly increase from the previous quarter due to seasonal factors, steady performance in demand for registered vehicles derived from the effects of introducing new car models, and other factors. On a year-on-year basis, demand in the overall construction sector will remain flat as demand for shipbuilding is expected to decrease due to the low performance in the bulk market and other factors, while recovery of demand for transport machinery and construction machinery and steady demand for automobiles are expected.
  • Steel exports:
    Steel exports will slightly increase from the previous quarter as demand for automobiles and demand for construction machinery in Asian and other countries will show steady performance, while decreasing on a year-on-year basis.

Crude steel demand for this quarter is estimated to be 26.29 million tons, increasing by 0.5% from the previous quarter and decreasing by 0.2% on a year-on-year basis.

Steel Demand Prospects for the Fourth Quarter of FY2016 (January-March 2017)

(Unit: million tons)

 

Total Steel

   

Ordinary Steel

Special Steel

Steel Demand

23.84

 

18.88

 

4.98

 
 

Year-on-year change

(24.23)

-1.6%

(19.40)

-2.8%

(4.84)

+3.0%

Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast

(23.19)

+2.8%

(18.23)

+3.5%

(4.96)

+0.4%

1) Domestic Demand

15.68

 

12.41

 

3.27

 

Year-on-year change

(15.58)

+0.7%

(12.39)

+0.2%

(3.19)

+2.6%

Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast

(15.13)

+4.5%

(11.88)

+4.5%

(3.25)

+0.6%

2) Export

8.16

 

6.45

 

1.71

 

Year-on-year change

(8.66)

-5.7%

(7.01)

-8.0%

(1.65)

+3.8%

Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast

(8.06)

+1.3%

(6.35)

+1.6%

(1.71)

+0.1%

References:

  • Crude steel demand equivalent to shipment: 26.30 million tons
    Year-on-year change: (25.84 million tons) +1.8%
    Change from the previous quarter’s forecast: (26.47 million tons) −0.6%
  • Ordinary steel: Inventory of makers and wholesalers Inventory of makers and wholesalers (end-December forecast): 6.64 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.09 months
    Inventory for domestic market among the above inventory (end-December forecast): 5.57 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.44 months

Notes:

  • The figures in parenthesis show the quantity for the same period of the previous year or the previous quarter’s forecast for comparison purposes (unit: million tons)
  • The total steel amount does not always correspond to the combination of subtotals since those figures are calculated per thousand tons.

Reference for Demand Prospects (Second Quarter of FY2017 (July-September 2017))

1. Trends in Crude Steel Production (Unit: thousand tons)

 

FY2012

FY2013

FY2014

FY2015

FY2016

FY2017

1Q

27,498

28,081

27,672

25,858

26,210

26,169

2Q

27,260

27,737

27,891

26,197

26,339

26,290

3Q

25,909

28,139

27,537

26,335

26,469

n.a.

4Q

26,638

27,567

26,745

25,839

26,300

n.a.

Total

107,305

111,524

109,844

104,229

105,318

52,459

Note

1) The data for the third quarter of FY2016 is the forecast result and the data for the fourth quarter of FY2016 represents prospects.

2. Ordinary Steel: Sector-by-Sector Domestic Consumption (Unit: thousand tons)

Sector

FY 2016 2Q Actual Consumption

FY 2017 1Q Consumption Forecast

FY 2017 2Q Prospects

Year-on- Year Change

Change Compared with the Previous Quarter’s Forecast

Construction

5,549

5,146

5,577

0.5%

8.4%

  

Civil Engineering

1,677

1,557

1,700

1.4%

9.2%

 

Architecture

3,872

3,589

3,877

0.1%

8.0%

Manufacturing

6,841

6,734

6,833

-0.1%

1.5%

 

Shipbuilding

1,108

1,038

1,030

-7.0%

-0.8%

 

Motor Vehicles

2,719

2,722

2,749

1.1%

1.0%

 

Industrial Machinery

1,112

1,122

1,159

4.2%

3.3%

 

Electrical Machinery

750

716

746

-0.5%

4.2%

 

Secondary Products

555

550

558

0.5%

1.5%

 

Containers

290

278

286

-1.4%

2.9%

 

Other

307

308

305

-0.7%

-1.0%

Total

12,390

11,880

12,410

0.2%

4.5%

Note

2) The quantity is estimated mainly based on demand-related statistics.

Release date

July 4, 2017

Division in Charge

Metal Industries Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau

Related website

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