METI
Font Size Change
S
M
L
Easy Web Browsing tool

Steel Demand Prospects for the Third Quarter of FY2017 (October-December 2017)

Total steel demand for the third quarter of FY2017 (October-December 2017) is estimated to be 23.87 million tons, an increase of 1.8% from the previous quarter, and a decrease by 1.6% on a year-on-year basis. The sector-by-sector breakdown is as follows:

Domestic demand:

  • Construction:
    Steel demand will increase in the construction sector as a whole from the previous quarter due to an increase in demand for civil engineering caused by seasonal factors. On a year-on-year basis, demand in the construction sector will see an overall increase in demand because a moderate increase in demand is expected for facility investment by the private sector, such as urban redevelopment in the Tokyo area, properties related to the Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games, and other projects, despite a decrease in demand for housing construction caused by decreased construction of rental properties.
  • Manufacturing:
    Steel demand in the manufacturing sector will remain flat from the previous quarter overall, since steady performance in domestic sales of new cars and steady demand for automobiles in Asian and other countries are expected. On a year-on-year basis, demand in the manufacturing sector will remain flat since demand for shipbuilding is expected to decrease due to the excessive supply of ship capacity, the low performance in the bulk market and other factors, while a recovery in demand for construction machinery and transport machinery and steady demand for automobiles are expected.
  • Steel exports:
    Steel exports will slightly increase from the previous quarter as demand for automobiles and demand for construction machinery in Asian and other countries will show steady performance, while decreasing on a year-on-year basis.
    Crude steel demand for this quarter is estimated to be 26.51 million tons, increasing by 1.5% from the previous quarter and decreasing by 0.4% on a year-on-year basis.

Steel Demand Prospects for the Third Quarter of FY2017 (October-December 2017)

(Unit: million tons)

 

Total Steel

   

Ordinary Steel

Special Steel

Steel Demand

23.87

 

18.86

 

5.01

 
 

Year-on-year change

(24.24)

-1.6%

(19.15)

-1.5%

(5.09)

-1.7%

 

Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast

(23.44)

+1.8%

(18.56)

+1.6%

(4.88)

+2.5%

 

1) Domestic Demand

16.07

 

12.71

 

3.36

 
 

Year-on-year change

(16.00)

+0.4%

(12.64)

+0.6%

(3.36)

+0.0%

 

Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast

(15.81)

+1.6%

(12.51)

+1.6%

(3.30)

+1.7%

 

2) Export

7.80

 

6.15

 

1.65

 
 

Year-on-year change

(8.25)

-5.4%

(6.51)

-5.5%

(1.74)

-5.0%

 

Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast

(7.63)

+2.2%

(6.05)

+1.7%

(1.58)

+4.2%

References:

  • Crude steel demand equivalent to shipment: 26.51 million tons
    Year-on-year change: (26.39 million tons) +0.4%
    Change from the previous quarter’s forecast: (26.12 million tons) +1.5%
  • Ordinary steel: Inventory of makers and wholesalers
    Inventory of makers and wholesalers (end-December forecast): 6.48 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.10 months
    Inventory for domestic market among the above inventory (end-December forecast): 5.52 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.42 months

Notes:

  • The figures in parenthesis show the quantity for the same period of the previous year or the previous quarter’s forecast for comparison purposes (unit: million tons)
  • The total steel amount does not always correspond to the combination of subtotals since those figures are calculated per thousand tons.

Reference for Demand Prospects (Third Quarter of FY2017 (October-December 2017))

  1. Trends in Crude Steel Production (Unit: thousand tons)
  FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017
1Q 27,498 28,081 27,672 25,858 26,210 26,095
2Q 27,260 27,737 27,891 26,197 26,339 26,117
3Q 25,909 28,139 27,537 26,335 26,469 26,510
4Q 26,638 27,567 26,745 25,839 26,300 n.a.
Total 107,305 111,524 109,844 104,229 105,318 78,722

Note 1) The data for the second quarter of FY2017 is the forecast result and the data for the third quarter of FY2017 represents prospects.

  1. Ordinary Steel: Sector-by-Sector Domestic Consumption (Unit: thousand tons)
Sector FY 2016-3Q Actual Consumption FY 2017-2Q Consumption Forecast FY 2017-3Q Prospects Year-on- Year Change Change Compared with the Previous Quarter’s Forecast
Construction 5,695 5,531 5,741 0.8% 3.8%
  Civil Engineering 1,911 1,683 1,952 2.1% 16.0%
  Architecture 3,784 3,848 3,789 0.1% -1.5%
Manufacturing 6,945 6,979 6,969 0.3% -0.1%
  Shipbuilding 1,108 1,044 1,038 -6.3% -0.6%
  Motor Vehicles 2,792 2,770 2,803 0.4% 1.2%
  Industrial Machinery 1,122 1,223 1,180 5.2% -3.5%
  Electrical Machinery 741 772 746 0.7% -3.4%
  Secondary Products 572 569 594 3.8% 4.4%
  Containers 299 283 293 -2.0% 3.5%
  Other 311 318 315 1.3% -0.9%
Total 12,640 12,510 12,710 0.6% 1.6%

Note 2) The quantity is estimated mainly based on demand-related statistics.

Release date

October 10, 2017

Division in Charge

Metal Industries Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau

Related website

Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry1-3-1 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8901, Japan Tel: +81-(0)3-3501-1511
Copyright Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. All Rights Reserved.