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Steel Demand Prospects for the Fourth Quarter of FY2017(January-March 2018)

Total steel demand for the fourth quarter of FY2017(January-March 2018)is estimated to be 23.62 million tons, showing a slight decrease of 1.4% on a year-on-year basis and remaining flat from the previous quarter, i.e., an increase of 0.4%. The sector-by-sector breakdown is as follows:

Domestic demand:

Construction:
Steel demand will remain flat in the construction sector as a whole on a year-on-year basis due to an expected decrease in the demand for new housing and housing for rent in the architecture sector, while steady movements are estimated in the public and private civil engineering sectors and the demand for non-housing will increase associated with a moderate increase in facility investment in the private sector, such as urban redevelopment in the Tokyo area, properties related to the Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games, and other projects. From the previous quarter, steel demand in the construction sector will decrease due to seasonal factors in the architecture sector.
Manufacturing:
Steel demand in the manufacturing sector will slightly decrease on a year-on-year basis because of  sluggish demand in shipbuilding, while steady movements are expected in demand in industrial machinery and other sectors. From the previous quarter, steel demand in the manufacturing sector will remain flat in contrast to the production shutdown and stopping of shipments by some automobile manufacturers in the previous quarter.
Steel exports:
Steel exports will decrease on a year-on-year basis due to the problem of production capacity and other factors against the backdrop of the tightened supply-demand balance in Japan, while increasing from the previous quarter.

Crude steel demand for this quarter is estimated to be 26.40 million tons, an increase by 0.6% on a year-on-year basis and a decrease by 0.9% from the previous quarter.

Steel Demand Prospects for the Fourth Quarter of FY2017(January-March 2018)

(Unit: million tons)

 

Total Steel

 

Ordinary Steel

Special Steel

Steel Demand

23.62

 

18.59

 

5.03

 

 

Year-on-year change

23.95

-1.4%

18.95

-1.9%

5.00

+0.6%

 

Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast

23.53

+0.4%

18.60

-0.1%

4.93

+2.0%

 

1) Domestic Demand

15.83

 

12.44

 

3.39

 

 

Year-on-year change

1.593

-0.6%

12.56

-1.0%

3.37

+0.5%

 

Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast

15.94

-0.7%

12.58

-1.1%

3.36

+0.9%

 

2) Export

7.79

 

6.15

 

1.64

 

 

Year-on-year change

8.02

-2.8%

6.39

-3.7%

1.63

+1.0%

 

Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast

7.59

+2.6%

6.02

-2.2%

1.57

+4.4%

References:

  • Crude steel demand equivalent to shipment: 26.40 million tons
    Year-on-year change:(26.23 million tons)+0.6%
    Change from the previous quarter's forecast:(26.64 million tons)-0.9%
  • Ordinary steel:Inventory of makers and wholesalers
    Inventory of makers and wholesalers(end-December forecast):6.69 million tons;Inventory turnover:1.12 months
    Inventory for domestic market among the above inventory(end-December forecast):5.76 million tons;Inventory turnover:1.46 months

Notes:

  • The figures in parenthesis show the quantity for the same period of the previous year or the previous quarter's forecast for comparison purposes(unit: million tons)
  • The total steel amount does not always correspond to the combination of subtotals since those figures are calculated per thousand tons.

Reference for Demand Prospects(Fourth Quarter of FY2017(January-March 2018))

1. Trends in Crude Steel Production(Unit:thousand tons)

 

FY2012

FY2013

FY2014

FY2015

FY2016

FY2017

1Q

27,498

28,081

27,672

25,858

26,209

26,095

2Q

27,260

27,737

27,891

26,197

26,334

25,943

3Q

25,909

28,139

27,537

26,335

26,393

26,643

4Q

26,638

27,567

26,745

25,839

26,230

26,398

Total

107,305

111,524

109,844

104,229

105,166

105,079

Note1:The data for the third quarter of FY2017 is the forecast result, and data for the fourth quarter of FY2017 represents prospects.

2. Ordinary Steel:Sector-by-Sector Domestic Consumption(Unit:thousand tons)

Sector

FY 2016-4Q Actual Consumption

FY 2017-3Q Consumption Forecast

FY 2017-4Q Prospects

Year-on- Year Change

Change Compared with the Previous Quarter's Forecast

Construction

5,448

5,599

5,419

-0.5%

-3.2%

 

Civil Engineering

1,839

1,854

1,857

1.0%

0.2%

 

Architecture

3,609

3,745

3,562

-1.3%

-4.9%

Manufacturing

7,112

6,981

7,021

-1.3%

0.6%

 

Shipbuilding

1,067

1,035

1,017

-4.7%

-1.7%

 

Motor Vehicles

2,894

2,806

2,838

-1.9%

1.1%

 

Industrial Machinery

1,202

1,201

1,219

1.4%

1.5%

 

Electrical Machinery

759

762

776

2.2%

1.8%

 

Secondary Products

585

574

584

-0.2%

1.7%

 

Containers

282

295

279

-1.1%

-5.4%

 

Other

323

308

308

-4.6%

0.0%

Total

12,560

12,580

12,440

-1.0%

-1.1%

Note2:Quantity is mainly estimated based on demand-related statistics.

Release date

December 25, 2017

Division in Charge

Metal Industries Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau

Related website

Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry1-3-1 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8901, Japan Tel: +81-(0)3-3501-1511
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