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Steel Demand Prospects for the Fourth Quarter of FY 2016 (January-March 2017)

Total steel demand for the fourth quarter of FY 2016 (January-March 2017) is estimated to be 23.82 million tons, a slight decrease of 1.4% from the previous quarter, and a slight increase of 1.5% on a year-on-year basis. The sector-by-sector breakdown is as follows:

Domestic demand:

  • Construction:
    • Steel demand in the construction sector will decrease from the previous quarter due to seasonal factors. On a year-on-year basis, demand in the construction sector will increase based on the expectation of: an increase of demand in the civil engineering sector, steady performance of construction of houses for rent triggered by inheritance tax control and other measures, picking up of construction of owned houses spurred by low-rate mortgage loans, and steady movement in demand for distribution facilities.
  • Manufacturing:
    • Steel demand in the manufacturing sector will increase both from the previous quarter and on a year-on-year basis with demand in the motor vehicle sector expected to increase due to seasonal factors and recovery in the number of registered vehicles due to the effects of introducing new car models, while sales of light vehicles remain stagnant.

Steel exports:

Steel exports will decrease from the previous quarter as a decrease in winning orders is expected in energy-related businesses due to the continuation of low crude-oil prices. On a year-on-year basis, steel exports will remain flat.

Crude steel demand for this quarter is estimated to be 26.30 million tons, a decrease by 0.6% from the previous quarter and an increase of 1.8% on a year-on-year basis. In FY2016, such demand is estimated to reach 105.32 million tons, a slight increase of 1.0% on a year-on-year basis.

Steel Demand Prospects for the Fourth Quarter of FY2016 (January-March 2017)
(Unit: million tons)
  Total Steel
  Ordinary Steel Special Steel
Steel Demand 23.82 18.87 4.95
  Year-on-year change (23.47) +1.5% (18.68) +1.0% (4.79) +3.2%
Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast (24.16) −1.4% (19.18) −1.6% (4.98) −0.7%
1) Domestic Demand 15.48 12.27 3.21
Year-on-year change (15.17) +2.1% (11.95) +2.7% (3.22) −0.3%
Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast (15.67) −1.2% (12.48) −1.7% (3.19) +0.8%
2) Export 8.33 6.60 1.73
Year-on-year change (8.30) +0.4% (6.73) −2.0% (1.57) +10.5%
Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast (8.50) −1.9% (6.70) −1.5% (1.80) −3.4%

References:

  • Crude steel demand equivalent to shipment: 26.30 million tons
    • Year-on-year change: (25.84 million tons) +1.8%
    • Change from the previous quarter’s forecast: (26.47 million tons) −0.6%
  • Ordinary steel: Inventory of makers and wholesalers
    • Inventory of makers and wholesalers (end-December forecast): 6.64 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.09 months
    • Inventory for domestic market among the above inventory (end-December forecast): 5.57 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.44 months
  • Notes:
    • The figures in parenthesis show the quantity for the same period of the previous year or the previous quarter’s forecast for comparison purposes (unit: million tons)
    • The total steel amount does not always correspond to the combination of subtotals since those figures are calculated per thousand tons.

Reference for Demand Prospects (Fourth Quarter of FY2016 (January-March 2017))

1. Trends in Crude Steel Production (Unit: thousand tons)
  FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016
1Q 26,368 27,498 28,081 27,672 25,858 26,210
2Q 26,950 27,260 27,737 27,891 26,197 26,339
3Q 26,579 25,909 28,139 27,537 26,335 26,469
4Q 26,566 26,638 27,567 26,745 25,839 26,300
Total 106,462 107,305 111,524 109,844 104,229 105,318

Note 1) The data for the third quarter of FY2016 is the forecast result and the data for the fourth quarter of FY2016 represents prospects.

2. Ordinary Steel: Sector-by-Sector Domestic Consumption (Unit: thousand tons)
Sector FY 2015 4Q Actual Consumption FY 2016 3Q Consumption Forecast FY 2016 4Q Prospects Year-on- Year Change Change Compared with the Previous Quarter’s Forecast
・Construction 5,143 5,681 5,295 3.0% −6.8%
  Civil Engineering 1,758 1,925 1,806 2.7% −6.2%
  Architecture 3,385 3,756 3,489 3.1% −7.1%
・Manufacturing 6,802 6,799 6,975 2.5% 2.6%
  Shipbuilding 1,024 1,018 1,006 −1.8% −1.2%
  Motor Vehicles 2,727 2,770 2,893 6.1% 4.4%
  Industrial Machinery 1,108 1,120 1,116 0.7% −0.4%
  Electrical Machinery 742 698 760 2.4% 8.9%
  Secondary Products 576 594 600 4.2% 1.0%
  Containers 290 290 281 −3.1% −3.1%
  Other 335 309 319 −4.8% 3.2%
Total 11,945 12,480 12,270 2.7% −1.7%

Note 2) The quantity is estimated mainly based on demand-related statistics.

Release date

December 27, 2016

Division in Charge

Metal Industries Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau

Related Information

Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry1-3-1 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8901, Japan Tel: +81-(0)3-3501-1511
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