Steel Demand Prospects for the Fourth Quarter of FY 2016 (January-March 2017)
Total steel demand for the fourth quarter of FY 2016 (January-March 2017) is estimated to be 23.82 million tons, a slight decrease of 1.4% from the previous quarter, and a slight increase of 1.5% on a year-on-year basis. The sector-by-sector breakdown is as follows:
- Steel demand in the construction sector will decrease from the previous quarter due to seasonal factors. On a year-on-year basis, demand in the construction sector will increase based on the expectation of: an increase of demand in the civil engineering sector, steady performance of construction of houses for rent triggered by inheritance tax control and other measures, picking up of construction of owned houses spurred by low-rate mortgage loans, and steady movement in demand for distribution facilities.
- Steel demand in the manufacturing sector will increase both from the previous quarter and on a year-on-year basis with demand in the motor vehicle sector expected to increase due to seasonal factors and recovery in the number of registered vehicles due to the effects of introducing new car models, while sales of light vehicles remain stagnant.
Steel exports will decrease from the previous quarter as a decrease in winning orders is expected in energy-related businesses due to the continuation of low crude-oil prices. On a year-on-year basis, steel exports will remain flat.
Crude steel demand for this quarter is estimated to be 26.30 million tons, a decrease by 0.6% from the previous quarter and an increase of 1.8% on a year-on-year basis. In FY2016, such demand is estimated to reach 105.32 million tons, a slight increase of 1.0% on a year-on-year basis.
|Ordinary Steel||Special Steel|
|Year-on-year change||(23.47) ＋1.5%||(18.68) ＋1.0%||(4.79) ＋3.2%|
|Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast||(24.16) −1.4%||(19.18) −1.6%||(4.98) −0.7%|
|1) Domestic Demand||15.48||12.27||3.21|
|Year-on-year change||(15.17) ＋2.1%||(11.95) ＋2.7%||(3.22) −0.3%|
|Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast||(15.67) −1.2%||(12.48) −1.7%||(3.19) ＋0.8%|
|Year-on-year change||(8.30) ＋0.4%||(6.73) −2.0%||(1.57) ＋10.5%|
|Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast||(8.50) −1.9%||(6.70) −1.5%||(1.80) −3.4%|
- Crude steel demand equivalent to shipment: 26.30 million tons
- Year-on-year change: (25.84 million tons) ＋1.8%
- Change from the previous quarter’s forecast: (26.47 million tons) −0.6%
- Ordinary steel: Inventory of makers and wholesalers
- Inventory of makers and wholesalers (end-December forecast): 6.64 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.09 months
- Inventory for domestic market among the above inventory (end-December forecast): 5.57 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.44 months
- The figures in parenthesis show the quantity for the same period of the previous year or the previous quarter’s forecast for comparison purposes (unit: million tons)
- The total steel amount does not always correspond to the combination of subtotals since those figures are calculated per thousand tons.
Reference for Demand Prospects (Fourth Quarter of FY2016 (January-March 2017))
Note 1) The data for the third quarter of FY2016 is the forecast result and the data for the fourth quarter of FY2016 represents prospects.
|Sector||FY 2015 4Q Actual Consumption||FY 2016 3Q Consumption Forecast||FY 2016 4Q Prospects||Year-on- Year Change||Change Compared with the Previous Quarter’s Forecast|
Note 2) The quantity is estimated mainly based on demand-related statistics.
December 27, 2016
Division in Charge
Metal Industries Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau