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Steel Demand Prospects for the First Quarter of FY2018 (April-June 2018)

Total steel demand for the first quarter of FY2018 (April-June 2018) is estimated to be 23.32 million tons, showing a slight increase of 1.8% on a year-on-year basis and a decrease compared to the previous quarter (a decrease of 2.2%). The sector-by-sector breakdown is as follows:

  • Domestic demand:
    • Construction:
      Steel demand will remain flat in the construction sector as a whole on a year-on-year basis due to an expected decrease in the demand for new housing and housing for rent in the architecture sector, while steady movements are estimated in the public and private civil engineering sectors and the demand for non-housing will increase associated with a moderate increase in facility investment in the private sector, such as urban redevelopment in the Tokyo area, properties related to the Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games, and other projects. From the previous quarter, steel demand in the construction sector will decrease due to seasonal factors in the civil engineering sector.
    • Manufacturing:
      Steel demand in the manufacturing sector will increase slightly on a year-on-year basis because steady movements are expected in demand in industrial machinery and other sectors, while demand is sluggish in shipbuilding. From the previous quarter, steel demand in the manufacturing sector will decrease due to seasonal factors (i.e. demand decline in the motor vehicle and electrical machinery sector accompanying the end of the fiscal period).
    • Exports:
      Steel exports will increase on a year-on-year basis in the form of a rebound after the export decline resulting from production facility problems last year. Steel export will show a slight decrease from the previous quarter.

Crude steel demand for this quarter is estimated to be 26.34 million tons, an increase of 0.9% on a year-on-year basis and a decrease of 0.9% from the previous quarter.

Steel Demand Prospects for the First Quarter of FY2018 (April-June 2018)

(Unit: million tons)

 

Total Steel

 

Ordinary Steel

Special Steel

Steel Demand

23.32

 

18.22

 

5.10

 
 

Year-on-year change

22.91

1.8%

17.99

2.4%

5.12

-0.4%

 

Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast

23.83

-2.2%

18.84

-3.3%

4.99

2.0%

 

1) Domestic Demand

15.56

 

12.20

 

3.36

 
 

Year-on-year change

15.53

0.2%

12.09

0.9%

3.44

-2.4%

 

Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast

15.96

-2.5%

12.59

-3.1%

3.37

-0.4%

 

2) Export

7.76

 

6.02

 

1.74

 
 

Year-on-year change

7.37

5.2%

5.70

5.6%

1.67

3.7%

 

Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast

7.87

-1.4%

6.25

-3.6%

1.62

-7.0%

References:

  • Crude steel demand equivalent to shipment: 26.34 million tons
    Year-on-year change: (26.09 million tons) +0.9%
    Change from the previous quarter’s forecast: (26.57 million tons) -0.9%
  • Ordinary steel: Inventory of makers and wholesalers
    Inventory of makers and wholesalers (end-December forecast): 6.62 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.11 months
    Inventory for domestic market among the above inventory (end-December forecast): 5.72 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.48 months

Notes:

  • The figures in parentheses show the quantity for the same period of the previous year, or the previous quarter’s forecast for comparison purposes (unit: million tons)
  • The total steel amount does not always correspond to the combination of subtotals since those figures are calculated per thousand tons.

Reference for Demand Prospects (First Quarter of FY2018 (April-June 2018))

1. Trends in Crude Steel Production (Unit: thousand tons)

 

FY2013

FY2014

FY2015

FY2016

FY2017

FY2018

1Q

28,081

27,672

25,858

26,209

26,095

26,340

2Q

27,737

27,891

26,197

26,334

25,943

 

3Q

28,139

27,537

26,335

26,393

26,643

 

4Q

27,567

26,745

25,839

26,230

26,398

 

Total

111,524

109,844

104,229

105,166

105,079

 

Note 1) The data for the fourth quarter of FY2017 is the forecast result, and data for the first quarter of FY2018 represents prospects.

2. Ordinary Steel: Sector-by-Sector Domestic Consumption (Unit: thousand tons)

FY 2017-4Q Consumption Forecast

Sector

FY 2017-1Q Actual Consumption

FY 2017-4Q Consumption Forecast

FY 2018-1Q Prospects

Year-on- Year Change

Change Compared with the Previous Quarter’s Forecast

Construction

5,180

5,366

5,187

0.1%

-3.3%

 

Civil Engineering

1,569

1,832

1,574

0.3%

-14.1%

 

Architecture

3,611

3,534

3,613

0.1%

2.2%

Manufacturing

6,910

7,224

7,013

1.5%

-2.9%

 

Shipbuilding

1,079

1,034

1,044

-3.2%

1.0%

 

Motor Vehicles

2,737

2,895

2,787

1.8%

-3.7%

 

Industrial Machinery

1,210

1,310

1,286

6.3%

-1.8%

 

Electrical Machinery

728

799

733

0.7%

-8.3%

 

Secondary Products

577

585

583

1.0%

-0.3%

 

Containers

272

286

273

0.4%

-4.5%

 

Other

307

315

307

0.0%

-2.5%

Total

12,090

12,590

12,200

0.9%

-3.1%

Note 2) Quantity is mainly estimated based on demand-related statistics.

Release date

April 6, 2018

Division in Charge

Metal Industries Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau

Related website

Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry1-3-1 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8901, Japan Tel: +81-(0)3-3501-1511
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