Future trends in global demand for and supply of petrochemical products
The Study Panel on Future Trends in Global Demand for and Supply of Petrochemical Products (managed by the Manufacturing Industries Bureau’s Chemical Division working as its secretariat) has completed a study on trends up to the year 2014 in global demand for and supply of petrochemical products such as ethylene and propylene derivatives and aromatic products (demand and production capacity and volume).
An outline of the study follows:
1. Impact of the financial crisis:
As a result of the unprecedented global economic turmoil such as the global financial crisis and dramatic fluctuations in oil prices, no part of the world has been left untouched by the sharp decline in demand for petrochemical products. Demand, however, is expected to pick up, since the world economy has been showing some signs of recovery since the second half of 2009, and the demand for ethylene derivatives, propylene derivatives and aromatic products is expected to increase from 2.0% in 2010 to 6.8% in 2014.
2. High demand growth in Asia (China):
There will be notable demand growth in Asia where, over the 2010 (on an estimated basis)-2014 period, demand for ethylene derivatives such as polyethylene and ethylene glycol will grow at the equivalent of 9.82 million tons of ethylene (on an annual average of 4.9%), and that for propylene derivatives such as polypropylene and acrylonitrile will grow at the equivalent of 7.6 million tons of polypropylene (on an annual average of 5.5%). Growth is expected to continue strongly, particularly in China, at the equivalent of 7.05 million tons of ethylene (on an annual average 6.5%) for ethylene derivatives, and at the equivalent of 5.16 million tons of propylene (on an annual average of 7.1%) for propylene derivatives.
3. Production capacity increase in the Middle East:
The capacity to produce petrochemical products is expected to substantially increase principally in the Middle East (by 5.969 million tons in 2009 and 2.372 million tons in 2010 of ethylene equivalent) and China (by 1.390 million tons in 2009 and 1.970 million tons in 2010 of ethylene equivalent). If all capacity increases are implemented as projected, there is likely to be an excess supply capacity and there will be intense international competitiveness worldwide.
May 14, 2009
Division in Charge
Chemical Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau