The Twenty-Eighth Survey of Industrial Economic Trends (February 15 Survey)

Macro Economic Affairs Division,

Economic and Industrial Policy Bureau

Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

This survey found that business conditions in industry as a whole have been negative for this quarter. By industry, conditions have been negative for the first time in seven quarters in the manufacturing industry, while in the non-manufacturing industry conditions have also been negative for four consecutive quarters. Negative conditions are forecast for the next quarter in both the manufacturing and the non-manufacturing industries.

The results of the survey follow. (PDF file)

Overview

1. Business Conditions For This Quarter (January to March, 2001)

(1) Conditions in industry as a whole have been negative.

(2) Conditions have been negative for the first time in seven quarters in the manufacturing industry.

(3) Conditions have been negative for the fourth consecutive quarter in the non-manufacturing industry.

2. Sales and Current Profits For This Quarter

(1) Industry as a whole has indicated a decrease in sales for the first time in three quarters and negative current profits for the second consecutive quarter.

(2) The manufacturing industry has indicated both a decrease in sales and negative current profits for the first time in three quarters.

(3) The non-manufacturing industry indicates a decrease in sales for the second consecutive quarter, while current profits have been negative for four consecutive quarters.

　

3. Other Relevant Factors For This Quarter

(1) In industry as a whole, enterprises that believe their employment is excessive are decreasing.

(2) Enterprises that believe their production capacity is excessive for the current market are increasing.

(3) Enterprises in manufacturing industry that consider the value of the yen to be under-valued are increasing.

　

4. Forecasts For the Next Quarter (April to June, 2001)

Notes:

D.I. stands for Diffusion Index.

D.I. value = The percentage evaluating the conditions as better (increase, excess, rise, etc.) minus the percentage evaluating the conditions as worse (decrease, insufficiency, decline, etc.).

Business conditions, sales trends (amount of sales, etc.), current profits and operating ratios are calculated in comparison to those of the preceding quarter.

Inventory of finished goods, employment and production capacity are evaluations of current standards.