|
Chemical Industry Division, Basic Industries Bureau,
MITI, JAPAN
As in FY1999, the Chemical Industry Division of the
Basic Industries Bureau, MITI has once again prepared a report on forecasted
trends in the supply and demand of ethylene base petrochemical products,
propylene base petrochemical products, and aromatic products (including
PTA) up to 2004. The report forecasts supply and demand movements of
petrochemical products inside and outside Japan. All forecasts were
derived from discussion held at an international study meeting, the
Director's Conference on Basic Issues of the Petrochemical Industry
(a private gathering for directors of the Basic Industries Bureau).
For details on the preparation of the forecast, refer to the attached
"Reference".
1. World supply and demand of ethylene and ethylene
derivatives
(1) World supply and demand of ethylene derivatives
|
*
Demand of ethylene derivatives worldwide will increase from 80.9
million tons in 1998 (results) to 104.6 million tons in 2004,
average annual growth of 4.4%.
* Region by region, Asia will show significant
annual growth of around 5.6%, backed by its rapid recovery from
the economic crisis, while North America and Western Europe will
show stable growth of around 3%. The Middle East, Africa, and
Central and South America will show high growth rates of 7-9%,
though on a quantity basis demand in these regions will remain
moderate.
* In Asia, India and Indonesia are expected to
show a relatively high, steady annual growth rates of around 10%.
China is also expected to show steady growth, though not at a
high level.
|
Demand for ethylene Derivatives (as C2) (In million
tons, %)
|
|
World
Total
|
Asia
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West
Europe
|
North
America
|
Middle
East
|
|
Korea
|
Taiwan
|
China
|
Asean
|
India
|
Japan
|
|
Demand
1998
2004
|
80.9
104.6
|
24.1
33.4
|
2.8
4.2
|
2.5
3.4
|
7.8
11.1
|
3.1
4.9
|
1.8
3.1
|
5.6
6.2
|
19.8
23.8
|
23.1
28.1
|
1.6
2.6
|
|
Increment
98-04
|
23.7
|
9.3
|
1.4
|
0.8
|
3.3
|
1.8
|
1.3
|
0.6
|
4.0
|
5.0
|
1.0
|
|
Growth Rate
98-04
|
4.4
|
5.6
|
6.6
|
4.8
|
6.1
|
7.8
|
9.6
|
1.6
|
3.2
|
3.4
|
8.3
|
Note: C2 equivalents of domestic demand of for derivatives
of LDPE, HDPE, SM, PVC, EG, etc.
(2) World capacity of ethylene derivatives
|
*
The world capacity of ethylene derivatives will increase from
93.4 million tons in 1998 (results) to 119.3 million tons in 2004
(average annual increase of 4.2%).
* Region by region, Asia will increase its capacity
by only 3.9% annually due to the cautious stance of manufacturers
from the lingering influence of the economic crisis. North America
will show a steady annual increase rate of 4.1%, and the Middle
East is expected to show a high rate of around 10%.
* Asia, Singapore, Malaysia, and Taiwan will
all show significant annual increases, while capacity in Japan
and Korea will remain unchanged
|
TABLE
World capacity of ethylene derivatives
(In million tons, %)
|
|
World
Total
|
Asia
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West
Europe
|
North
America
|
Middle
East
|
|
Korea
|
Taiwan
|
China
|
Asean
|
India
|
Japan
|
|
Demand
1998
2004
|
97.0
119.3
|
27.1
34.2
|
5.4
5.6
|
2.0
3.2
|
4.9
6.3
|
4.4
7.6
|
2.3
3.5
|
8.1
7.9
|
22.8
25.9
|
30.5
34.2
|
5.0
8.7
|
|
Increment
98-04
|
22.3
|
7.1
|
0.2
|
1.2
|
1.4
|
3.2
|
1.2
|
-0.2
|
3.1
|
3.7
|
3.7
|
|
Growth Rate
98-04
|
3.5
|
3.9
|
0.6
|
8.4
|
4.4
|
9.5
|
7.6
|
-0.5
|
2.2
|
1.9
|
9.6
|
Note: As for capacity of each ethylene derivative,
refer to "Attached Sheet 1".
(3) World supply /demand balance of ethylene derivatives
|
*
Excess demand in Asia will be compounded, presumably due to the
sluggish investment carrying over from the economic crisis combined
with the demand stimulus from the region's rapid economic recovery
* In Asia, China will see excess demand while
ASEAN will move from an excess demand condition to an excess supply
condition. The excess demand in Asia as a whole will mainly result
from the excess demand in China. Other countries in Asia will
stay in an excess supply condition.
* The Middle East will show an increase in excess
supply so substantial that its excess supply position will surpass
the excess demand positions of Asia and in Western Europe combined.
* As for the supply / demand balance in Asia
in individual products, EG and LDPE will show significant excess
demand.
|
TABLE
World supply /demand balance of ethylene derivatives
(In million tons, %)
|
|
Asia
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West
Europe
|
North
America
|
Middle
East
|
|
Korea
|
Taiwan
|
China
|
Asean
|
India
|
Japan
|
|
1998
2004
|
-1.6
-3.3
|
2.2
1.1
|
-1.4
-0.8
|
-3.5
-5.2
|
0.1
1.3
|
0.0
-0.2
|
1.4
1.1
|
-0.3
-1.2
|
3.5
4.5
|
2.8
5.3
|
Supply /demand balance of individual products in Asia
(In million tons, %)
|
|
Total
|
LDPE
|
HDPE
|
SM
|
PVC
|
EG
|
|
1998
2004
|
-1.6
-3.3
|
-0.7
-0.9
|
0.9
0.2
|
-0.1
-0.3
|
0.0
-0.1
|
-1.5
-1.6
|
(4) World supply and demand of ethylene
|
*
In parallel with the increase in production of ethylene derivatives,
worldwide demand for ethylene will increase from 81.2 million
tons in 1998 (results) to 104.8 million tons in 2004 (average
annual growth of 4.3%).
|
Note: As For details on the demand, production capacity,
and supply/demand balance of ethylene, refer to "Attached Sheet 2".
|
2.
World supply and demand of propylene and propylene
derivatives (PP and AN)
|
(1) World demand for propylene and propylene derivatives
|
*
World demand for propylene derivatives will increase from 30 million
tons in 1998 (results) to 42.3 million tons in 2004 (relatively
high average annual growth of 5.9%).
* Region by region, Asia will show a relatively
high annual growth of around 6.3%. North America will also show
high growth of 5.9%. The Middle East and Africa will show high
growth rates of more than 10%, though in quantity terms demand
in those regions will be modest.
* Country by country, India, ASEAN countries,
and China will show high growth rates.
|
TABLE
Demand for propylene derivatives (In million tons,
%)
|
|
World
Total
|
Asia
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West
Europe
|
North
America
|
Middle
East
|
|
Korea
|
Taiwan
|
China
|
Asean
|
India
|
Japan
|
|
Demand
1998
2004
|
30.0
42.3
|
11.4
16.3
|
1.1
1.6
|
0.9
1.3
|
3.7
5.8
|
1.5
2.4
|
0.9
1.4
|
3.2
3.6
|
8.2
10.6
|
6.6
9.3
|
0.4
0.9
|
|
Increment
98-04
|
12.3
|
4.9
|
0.5
|
0.4
|
2.1
|
0.9
|
0.5
|
0.4
|
2.4
|
2.7
|
0.5
|
|
Growth Rate
98-04
|
5.9
|
6.3
|
6.7
|
6.0
|
7.9
|
7.9
|
9.0
|
1.9
|
4.4
|
5.9
|
11.8
|
(2) World capacity of propylene derivatives
|
*
World capacity of propylene derivatives will increase from 36.4
million tons in 1998 (results) to 47 million tons in 2004 (average
annual growth of 4.4%).
* Region by region, Asia is expected to show
a relatively low growth of 3.4%, while North America will show
a steady growth of 4.8%. The Middle East is expected to show a
high growth of more than 17%, though production capacity will
remain modest in volume terms.
|
TABLE
Capacity of propylene derivatives (In million tons,
%)
|
|
World
Total
|
Asia
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West
Europe
|
North
America
|
Middle
East
|
|
Korea
|
Taiwan
|
China
|
Asean
|
India
|
Japan
|
|
Demand
1998
2004
|
36.7
47.0
|
13.917.0
|
2.9
3.3
|
0.7
1.3
|
2.7
3.2
|
2.4
3.3
|
1.3
1.9
|
3.9
3.9
|
9.4
11.5
|
8.9
11.4
|
0.7
1.7
|
|
Increment
98-04
|
10.3
|
3.1
|
0.4
|
0.6
|
0.5
|
0.9
|
0.6
|
0.0
|
2.1
|
2.5
|
1.0
|
|
Growth Rate
98-04
|
4.2
|
3.4
|
2.0
|
10.3
|
3.1
|
5.8
|
7.4
|
0.0
|
3.4
|
4.1
|
17.5
|
TABLE
Capacity of polypropylene (In million tons, %)
|
|
World
Total
|
Asia
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West
Europe
|
North
America
|
Middle
East
|
|
Korea
|
Taiwan
|
China
|
Asean
|
India
|
Japan
|
|
Capacity
1998
2004
|
29.8
38.8
|
11.5
13.6
|
2.4
2.8
|
0.5
0.8
|
2.0
2.2
|
2.3
3.0
|
1.2
1.7
|
3.0
3.0
|
7.7
9.8
|
6.9
9.1
|
0.6
1.7
|
|
Increment
98-04
|
9.0
|
2.1
|
0.4
|
0.3
|
0.2
|
0.7
|
0.5
|
0.0
|
2.1
|
2.2
|
1.1
|
|
Growth Rate
98-04
|
4.5
|
2.9
|
2.3
|
9.1
|
1.6
|
4.6
|
6.1
|
0.0
|
4.2
|
4.5
|
17.5
|
(3) World supply /demand balance of propylene derivatives
|
*
Asia is in a slightly excess supply condition. By 2004, however,
the situation will become a slightly excess demand owing mainly
to the increase in excess demand in China.
|
TABLE
World supply /demand balance of propylene derivatives
(In million tons, %)
|
|
Asia
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West
Europe
|
North
America
|
Middle
East
|
|
Korea
|
Taiwan
|
China
|
Asean
|
India
|
Japan
|
|
1998
2004
|
0.7
-0.6
|
1.6
1.4
|
-0.3
-0.2
|
-1.4
-2.7
|
0.4
0.7
|
0.2
0.3
|
0.3
0.2
|
0.2
-0.4
|
1.3
1.2
|
0.1
0.4
|
(4) World supply and demand of propylene
|
*
Parallel with the increase in production of derivatives, worldwide
demand for propylene will increase from 47.2 million tons in 1998
(results) to 59.6 million tons in 2004 (average annual growth
of 4.0%).
|
Note: For details on the demand, production capacity,
and supply/demand balance of propylene, refer to "Attached Sheet 3".
|
3.
World supply and demand of aromatics and aromatics derivatives
|
(1) World supply and demand of aromatics
|
*
Average annual growth in demand for benzene, toluene, and xylene
from 1998 to 2004 will be 2.8%, 2.6%, and 4.6%, respectively.
* In Asia, the excess demand for xylene will
be compounded, there will be balanced supply and demand for benzene,
and the supply of toluene will exceed demand.
|
Note: For details on the worldwide demand and production
capacity of aromatics, refer to "Attached Sheet 4".
TABLE
Supply /demand balance of benzene (In million tons,
%)
|
|
Asia
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West
Europe
|
North
America
|
Middle
East
|
|
Korea
|
Taiwan
|
China
|
Asean
|
India
|
Japan
|
|
1998
2004
|
0.2
0.0
|
0.2
0.5
|
0.0
0.0
|
-0.1
-0.2
|
-0.2
-0.4
|
0.0
0.0
|
0.2
0.2
|
-0.6
-0.3
|
-0.4
-0.2
|
0.4
0.4
|
Supply /demand balance of toluene (In million tons,
%)
|
|
Asia
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West
Europe
|
North
America
|
Middle
East
|
|
Korea
|
Taiwan
|
China
|
Asean
|
India
|
Japan
|
|
1998
2004
|
-0.1
0.1
|
0.7
1.0
|
-0.2
-0.2
|
-0.3
-0.6
|
0.0
0.0
|
-0.2
-0.1
|
-0.2
0.0
|
0.1
0.1
|
0.0
-0.5
|
0.0
0.0
|
Supply /demand balance of xylene (In million tons,
%)
|
|
Asia
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West
Europe
|
North
America
|
Middle
East
|
|
Korea
|
Taiwan
|
China
|
Asean
|
India
|
Japan
|
|
1998
2004
|
-1.6
-2.7
|
-0.1
-1.0
|
-1.4
-1.6
|
-0.1
0.0
|
-0.1
-0.2
|
0.2
0.1
|
0.0
0.1
|
0.0
-0.5
|
0.4
0.8
|
0.2
0.1
|
- World supply and demand of paraxylene and PTA
|
*
Average annual growth in demand for paraxylene worldwide from
1998 to 2004 will be 5.1%. Western Europe will show a steady growth
of 5.7%, and Asia will show growth of 4.7%.
* Average annual growth in demand for PTA worldwide
from 1998 to 2004 will be 7.0%. Western Europe will show a steady
growth of 11.6%, and Asia will show growth of 6.4%.
* Regarding the supply /demand balance in Asia,
paraxylene will show a slight increase in excess supply. On the
other hand, PTA is expected to change from an excess supply condition
to excess demand condition mainly due to the increase in excess
demand in China.
|
TABLE
World supply /demand balance of paraxylene (In million
tons, %)
|
|
Asia
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West
Europe
|
North
America
|
Middle
East
|
|
Korea
|
Taiwan
|
China
|
Asean
|
India
|
Japan
|
|
1998
2004
|
0.1
0.7
|
0.1
0.1
|
-1.4
-1.6
|
0.0
0.0
|
-0.5
0.0
|
0.4
0.5
|
1.5
1.8
|
-0.2
-0.2
|
0.9
0.4
|
0.1
0.3
|
World supply /demand balance of PTA (In million tons,
%)
|
|
Asia
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West
Europe
|
North
America
|
Middle
East
|
|
Korea
|
Taiwan
|
China
|
Asean
|
India
|
Japan
|
|
1998
2004
|
0.6
-1.3
|
1.0
0.3
|
-0.2
-0.5
|
-0.6
-1.6
|
0.1
0.3
|
0.0
-0.3
|
0.6
0.5
|
-0.1
-0.3
|
0.3
0.0
|
-0.1
-0.4
|
|
4.
World forecast by country and area basis
|
(1) Asia
|
*
Korea and most ASEAN countries have shown significant recovery
from their economic crisis triggered by the Asian currency crisis.
Accordingly, they will contribute to show steady growth, though
the rates will fall below the peak seen in the past decade. China
is also expected to show steady demand growth, though also at
a slightly decreased rate.
* Looking at the supply situation, the total
aggregate increases in plant capacity will not be a significant
for the coming several years due to revised investment plans in
individual countries under the lingering influence of the Asian
currency crisis.
* Chinaﾃﾔ plans for large-scale ethylene plants
(capacity: 600,000 to 800,000 tons) will face substantial obstacles
before they can be actualized though some are already in the F/S
stage. Completion of the plants is expected during and after 2005.
Thus, the present demand forecast does not take these plants into
account.
|
1) Korea
* A currency crisis beginning in 1997 triggered the
economic catastrophe in Korea, pulling down annual growth to ﾋ�.8% in
1998. During 1999, however, the export of final products such as semiconductors,
automobiles, and computer-related components turned the Korean economy
around, setting it on a course for annual economic growth of around
10%. The inertia is expected to continue during and after 2000 with
average annual growth of near 6%. According to a demand forecast (1998-2004),
the average annual growth in demand will be around 5.5%.
* After the currency crisis, some companies froze or
cancelled their plans for new investment to increase their production
capacities. There are small a number of new capacity-increasing plans
to be implemented up to 2004, though there are also some capacity-increasing
and de-bottlenecking plans.
2) Taiwan
* The Taiwan economy during 1998 reduced exports; the
source of nearly half of its GDP, due to the Asian economic crisis,
and this drove its GDP sharply down. Since their unexpectedly early
recovery of the Asian economy has triggered rapid growth in Taiwan,
stable growth is expected to continue in the future. According to the
demand forecast (1998-2004), the annual average net GDP growth rate
is expected to reach about 5.5%.
* As for the expansion of FPC facilities (900 thousand
tons a year), the production is calculated to begin from the third quarter
of 2003. In calculation on the new large-scale ethylene plants to be
built in the future, it was presumed that no investments would be made
until 2004 due to the many uncertainties in market conditions.
3) China
* There is a general forecast that the high growth
of the Chinese economy will cool down in the future. According to the
demand forecast (1998-2004), the annual average net GDP growth from
1998 to 2004 will fall to 7-5%.
* As for Chinaﾃﾔ plan for its large-scale ethylene
plant, actual operation is not expected to begin until 2005 or after
due to difficulties in securing raw materials, the influences of new
and capacity-increasing investment in oil refinery facilities, and the
considerable time required for negotiations with stakeholders in related
fields. The 9-5 Plan (1996-2000) concentrates on the capacity-increase
of an existing 300,000-ton class ethylene plant to 450,000-ton class.
4) ASEAN
* According to the demand forecast (1998-2004), the
average net GDP growth rates will be 3.7-6% in Thailand, about 3.2%
in Indonesia, about 3% in the Philippines, and 4.5-6% in Malaysia.
* Due to the economic crisis triggered by the currency
crisis during in and after July 1997, the economies of all ASEAN countries
entered recession. Recently, however, they have shown unexpectedly rapid
recovery, though the rates slightly differ in each country.
* The economic crisis led to the postponement and cancellation
of new and capacity-increase plans. Consequently, the number of new
and capacity-increasing plans is relatively small as a whole.
(2) Western Europe
|
*
Buoyed by smooth recovery in Germany, Italy, and other countries
from the second half of 1999, the European economy in 2000 is
expected to be in relatively good form. According to the demand
forecast (1998-2004), the average annual net GDP growth rate will
reach 2.8%.
* During and after 2000, the petrochemical companies
will restructure their internal organizations and layoffs. In
addition, in recent years, alliance activities such as consolidation
in the synthetic resin field between SHELL and BASF, the amalgamation
of BP with Amoco centering on the polyolefin sector, etc., have
progressed.
* There is no new investment plan for styrene,
and the plans for capacity-increases and de-bottlenecking make
up the mainstreams in this sector.
|
(3) North America (the U.S.A.)
|
*
The petrochemical companies in the U.S. have promoted globalization
and scale increase as a strategy for survival. Thus, there have
been positive M&A activities and cooperation between individual
divisions of giant companies.
* The new and capacity-increase plans prepared
in the economy growth period during and after 1994 have temporarily
settled. Since they have sufficient supply capacity until 2004,
they do not have many plans for new and capacity-increasing investments.
* The domestic economy sustains its favorable
condition, expecting slightly below 4% annual growth also in 1999.
There has been anxiety about excessively high stock prices, and
the sustainable favorable economy leaves uncertainty. Nevertheless,
at least at present, the economic growth is supported by the driving
force of the information revolution. According to the demand forecast
(1998-2004), the annual average net GDP growth rate will be 2.5%.
|
(4) Middle East
|
*
Aiming at independence from a regional economy fully dependent
on oil, at more effective use of resources, and at a diversification
of profit sources, the countries of the Middle East are fostering
the petrochemical industry through the introduction of foreign
capital and technology under the leadership of their governments.
* Large-scale projects aiming at export are underway.
There are several large-scale projects on schedule: three ethylene
plants in Saudi Arabia (2000), a plant in Quarter (2002), and
a large project in UAE.
|
(Notes) Relating to data in this paper:
(1) Asia does not include the Middle East. Turkey
is part of Europe, not the Middle East but belongs to Western Europe.
(2) Production capacity indicates the annual production
capacity.
(3) Growth (or growth rate) indicates annual average
growth (or growth rate) unless otherwise specified.
(Attached sheet 1)
Capacity of ethylene derivatives
TABLE LDPE Capacity (In million tons, %)
|
|
World
Total
|
Asia
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West
Europe
|
North
America
|
Middle
East
|
|
Korea
|
Taiwan
|
China
|
Asean
|
India
|
Japan
|
|
Capacity
1998
2004
|
33.0
41.1
|
8.1
10.3
|
1.7
1.5
|
0.3
0.7
|
1.5
1.6
|
1.6
3.1
|
0.5
0.9
|
2.5
2.5
|
8.4
9.4
|
10.2
11.5
|
1.9
3.3
|
|
Increment
98-04
|
8.1
|
2.2
|
-0.2
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
1.5
|
0.4
|
0.0
|
1.0
|
1.3
|
1.4
|
|
Growth Rate
98-04
|
3.7
|
4.1
|
-1.3
|
14.0
|
0.9
|
12.1
|
8.5
|
0.0
|
2.0
|
2.1
|
9.1
|
LDPE Capacity (In million tons, %)
|
|
World
Total
|
Asia
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West
Europe
|
North
America
|
Middle
East
|
|
Korea
|
Taiwan
|
China
|
Asean
|
India
|
Japan
|
|
Capacity
1998
2004
|
22.0
27.9
|
6.8
8.0
|
1.6
1.9
|
0.5
0.6
|
0.9
0.9
|
1.5
2.0
|
0.9
1.2
|
1.3
1.3
|
4.6
5.7
|
7.1
8.2
|
1.0
2.5
|
|
Increment
98-04
|
5.9
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.5
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
1.5
|
|
Growth Rate
98-04
|
4.0
|
2.7
|
2.8
|
3.8
|
0.0
|
4.8
|
4.2
|
0.0
|
3.6
|
2.4
|
15.3
|
PVC Capacity (In million tons, %)
|
|
World
Total
|
Asia
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West
Europe
|
North
America
|
Middle
East
|
|
Korea
|
Taiwan
|
China
|
Asean
|
India
|
Japan
|
|
Capacity
1998
2004
|
28.6
32.4
|
9.7
12.7
|
1.2
1.2
|
1.3
1.7
|
2.0
3.4
|
1.4
1.9
|
0.9
1.5
|
2.9
2.9
|
6.5
6.7
|
7.4
7.9
|
0.6
0.7
|
|
Increment
98-04
|
3.8
|
3.0
|
0.0
|
0.4
|
1.4
|
0.5
|
0.6
|
0.0
|
0.2
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
|
Growth Rate
98-04
|
2.1
|
4.5
|
0.0
|
4.8
|
9.0
|
4.7
|
8.9
|
0.0
|
0.4
|
1.0
|
1.5
|
SM Capacity (In million tons, %)
|
|
World
Total
|
Asia
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West
Europe
|
North
America
|
Middle
East
|
|
Korea
|
Taiwan
|
China
|
Asean
|
India
|
Japan
|
|
Capacity
1998
2004
|
21.2
25.2
|
7.8
9.6
|
2.2
2.3
|
0.8
1.1
|
0.8
0.9
|
1.1
1.9
|
0.0
0.5
|
3.1
2.9
|
4.9
6.2
|
6.6
6.6
|
0.5
1.0
|
|
Increment
98-04
|
4.0
|
1.8
|
0.1
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.8
|
0.5
|
-0.2
|
1.3
|
0.0
|
0.5
|
|
Growth Rate
98-04
|
2.9
|
3.4
|
0.9
|
6.9
|
2.0
|
9.9
|
|
-0.8
|
4.3
|
0.0
|
11.5
|
EG Capacity (In million tons, %)
|
|
World
Total
|
Asia
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West
Europe
|
North
America
|
Middle
East
|
|
Korea
|
Taiwan
|
China
|
Asean
|
India
|
Japan
|
|
Capacity
1998
2004
|
12.6
17.2
|
3.9
6.1
|
0.8
0.8
|
0.3
0.9
|
0.9
1.6
|
0.3
1.1
|
0.5
0.8
|
1.0
0.9
|
1.5
1.6
|
4.4
5.1
|
1.7
2.6
|
|
Increment
98-04
|
4.6
|
2.2
|
0.0
|
0.6
|
0.7
|
0.8
|
0.3
|
0.8
|
0.1
|
0.7
|
0.9
|
|
Growth Rate
98-04
|
5.4
|
7.8
|
0.0
|
20.6
|
9.6
|
21.7
|
8.3
|
-1.9
|
0.8
|
2.7
|
7.1
|
(Attached sheet 2)
Demand, Capacity, and supply /demand balance of ethylene
Ethylene demand (In million tons, %)
|
|
World
Total
|
Asia
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West
Europe
|
North
America
|
Middle
East
|
|
Korea
|
Taiwan
|
China
|
Asean
|
India
|
Japan
|
|
Demand
1998
2004
|
81.2
104.8
|
21.9
29.4
|
5.0
5.3
|
1.1
2.5
|
4.3
5.8
|
3.2
6.1
|
1.1
2.2
|
7.1
7.4
|
19.5
22.7
|
26.6
32.5
|
4.4
7.9
|
|
Increment
98-04
|
23.6
|
7.5
|
0.3
|
1.4
|
1.5
|
2.9
|
1.1
|
0.3
|
3.2
|
5.9
|
3.5
|
|
Growth Rate
98-04
|
4.3
|
5.1
|
0.9
|
14.4
|
5.3
|
11.3
|
11.9
|
0.7
|
2.6
|
3.4
|
10.2
|
Ethylene Capacity (In million tons, %)
|
|
World
Total
|
Asia
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West
Europe
|
North
America
|
Middle
East
|
|
Korea
|
Taiwan
|
China
|
Asean
|
India
|
Japan
|
|
Capacity
1998
2004
|
90.6
111.8
|
22.1
29.2
|
4.8
5.6
|
1.0
2.4
|
4.4
5.9
|
3.3
5.9
|
1.2
2.3
|
7.3
7.1
|
20.9
22.7
|
29.5
34.3
|
5.5
9.3
|
|
Increment
98-04
|
21.2
|
7.1
|
0.8
|
1.4
|
1.5
|
2.6
|
1.1
|
-0.2
|
1.8
|
4.8
|
3.8
|
|
Growth Rate
98-04
|
3.6
|
4.7
|
2.4
|
15.1
|
5.0
|
10.2
|
11.1
|
-0.5
|
1.4
|
2.5
|
9.2
|
World supply /demand balance of ethylene (In million
tons, %)
|
|
Asia
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West
Europe
|
North
America
|
Middle
East
|
|
Korea
|
Taiwan
|
China
|
Asean
|
India
|
Japan
|
|
1998
2004
|
-0.2
-0.6
|
0.1
0.2
|
-0.2
-0.3
|
0.0
-0.1
|
-0.1
-0.5
|
-0.1
-0.1
|
0.1
0.0
|
-0.3
-0.9
|
0.1
0.2
|
0.4
0.3
|
(Attached sheet 3)
Demand, Capacity, and supply /demand balance of propylene
Propylene demand (In million tons, %)
|
|
World
Total
|
Asia
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
West
Europe
|
North
America
|
Middle
East
|
|
Korea
|
Taiwan
|
China
|
India
|
Japan
|
|
Demand
1998
2004
|
47.2
59.6
|
14.8
18.7
|
3.3
3.6
|
0.8
1.3
|
2.8
3.5
|
1.1
1.8
|
4.8
4.9
|
13.4
16.0
|
13.7
16.9
|
0.7
1.5
|
|
Increment
98-04
|
12.4
|
3.9
|
0.3
|
0.5
|
0.7
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
2.6
|
3.2
|
0.8
|
|
Growth Rate
98-04
|
4.0
|
4.0
|
1.5
|
8.1
|
4.2
|
8.6
|
0.3
|
3.0
|
3.6
|
12.6
|
Propylene Capacity (In million tons, %)
|
|
World
Total
|
Asia
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West
Europe
|
North
America
|
Middle
East
|
|
Korea
|
Taiwan
|
China
|
Asean
|
India
|
Japan
|
|
Capacity
1998
2004
|
56.7
70.0
|
15.9
19.4
|
3.3
3.6
|
0.6
1.3
|
3.0
3.7
|
1.9
3.3
|
1.3
1.8
|
5.8
5.7
|
14.7
16.3
|
18.5
24.4
|
1.0
2.2
|
|
Increment
98-04
|
13.3
|
3.5
|
0.3
|
0.7
|
0.7
|
1.4
|
0.5
|
-0.1
|
1.6
|
5.9
|
1.2
|
|
Growth Rate
98-04
|
3.6
|
3.4
|
1.7
|
13.0
|
3.6
|
9.6
|
5.6
|
-0.4
|
1.8
|
4.7
|
14.6
|
World supply /demand balance of propylene (In million
tons, %)
|
|
Asia
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West
Europe
|
North
America
|
Middle
East
|
|
Korea
|
Taiwan
|
China
|
Asean
|
India
|
Japan
|
|
1998
2004
|
0.1
-0.1
|
0.1
0.0
|
-0.2
0.0
|
-0.1
0.0
|
-0.2
-0.4
|
0.1
-0.1
|
0.3
0.5
|
-0.2
-0.5
|
-0.7
-0.6
|
0.1
0.4
|
(Attached sheet 4)
World demand and Capacity of aromatics
Benzene
Demand (In million tons, %)
|
|
World
Total
|
Asia
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West
Europe
|
North
America
|
Middle
East
|
|
Korea
|
Taiwan
|
China
|
Asean
|
India
|
Japan
|
|
Demand
1998
2004
|
29.7
35.0
|
9.8
11.9
|
2.1
2.2
|
0.4
0.9
|
1.8
2.1
|
1.1
1.9
|
0.4
0.6
|
4.0
4.2
|
7.4
8.4
|
8.9
10.0
|
0.5
1.3
|
|
Increment
98-04
|
5.3
|
2.1
|
0.1
|
0.5
|
0.3
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
1.0
|
1.1
|
0.8
|
|
Growth Rate
98-04
|
2.8
|
3.2
|
0.7
|
13.6
|
2.7
|
9.3
|
4.1
|
1.2
|
2.1
|
2.1
|
15.7
|
Capacity (In million tons, %)
|
|
World
Total
|
Asia
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West
Europe
|
North
America
|
Middle
East
|
|
Korea
|
Taiwan
|
China
|
Asean
|
India
|
Japan
|
|
Capacity
1998
2004
|
39.0
43.7
|
11.7
14.1
|
2.3
2.8
|
0.5
1.1
|
1.8
2.2
|
1.0
1.6
|
0.6
0.7
|
5.5
5.8
|
8.1
9.0
|
11.2
11.8
|
1.1
1.9
|
|
Increment
98-04
|
4.7
|
2.4
|
0.5
|
0.6
|
0.4
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.3
|
0.9
|
0.6
|
0.8
|
|
Growth Rate
98-04
|
1.9
|
3.1
|
3.3
|
14.6
|
3.1
|
7.1
|
0.4
|
1.0
|
1.7
|
0.8
|
9.8
|
Toluene
Demand (In million tons, %)
|
|
World
Total
|
Asia
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West
Europe
|
North
America
|
Middle
East
|
|
Korea
|
Taiwan
|
China
|
Asean
|
India
|
Japan
|
|
Demand
1998
2004
|
13.8
16.1
|
3.4
4.5
|
0.2
0.4
|
0.2
0.3
|
0.8
1.3
|
0.4
0.7
|
0.3
0.3
|
1.5
1.5
|
1.8
1.9
|
5.6
6.5
|
0.6
0.6
|
|
Increment
98-04
|
2.3
|
1.1
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.5
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.1
|
0.9
|
0.0
|
|
Growth Rate
98-04
|
2.6
|
4.7
|
8.3
|
5.4
|
8.8
|
10.7
|
0.0
|
0.5
|
0.8
|
2.4
|
0.0
|
Capacity (In million tons, %)
|
|
World
Total
|
Asia
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West
Europe
|
North
America
|
Middle
East
|
|
Korea
|
Taiwan
|
China
|
Asean
|
India
|
Japan
|
|
Capacity
1998
2004
|
17.4
18.9
|
4.7
5.9
|
1.5
1.9
|
0.1
0.3
|
0.8
1.1
|
0.5
0.8
|
0.2
0.2
|
1.6
1.6
|
2.3
2.4
|
5.9
6.0
|
0.7
0.7
|
|
Increment
98-04
|
1.5
|
1.3
|
0.4
|
0.2
|
0.3
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
|
Growth Rate
98-04
|
1.3
|
4.1
|
4.7
|
24.6
|
4.1
|
7.9
|
1.8
|
0.5
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Xylene
Demand (In million tons, %)
|
|
World
Total
|
Asia
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West
Europe
|
North
America
|
Middle
East
|
|
Korea
|
Taiwan
|
China
|
Asean
|
India
|
Japan
|
|
Demand
1998
2004
|
21.9
28.8
|
11.4
15.1
|
2.1
3.0
|
1.9
2.7
|
0.7
0.8
|
1.1
2.1
|
1.3
1.9
|
4.3
4.5
|
2.9
4.1
|
5.3
5.7
|
0.4
1.7
|
|
Increment
98-04
|
6.9
|
3.7
|
0.9
|
0.8
|
0.1
|
1.0
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
1.2
|
0.4
|
1.3
|
|
Growth Rate
98-04
|
4.6
|
4.8
|
6.6
|
6.3
|
2.1
|
11.1
|
6.9
|
0.6
|
5.8
|
1.4
|
29.1
|
Capacity (In million tons, %)
|
|
World
Total
|
Asia
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
West
Europe
|
North
America
|
Middle
East
|
|
Korea
|
Taiwan
|
China
|
Asean
|
India
|
Japan
|
|
Capacity
1998
2004
|
30.9
36.3
|
12.6
15.0
|
2.3
2.3
|
0.8
1.7
|
1.3
1.5
|
1.3
20.
|
1.6
2.2
|
5.3
5.3
|
4.0
5.0
|
9.3
9.3
|
0.9
2.8
|
|
Increment
98-04
|
5.4
|
2.4
|
0.0
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.7
|
0.6
|
0.0
|
1.0
|
0.0
|
1.9
|
|
Growth Rate
98-04
|
2.7
|
3.0
|
0.0
|
13.0
|
2.0
|
8.1
|
5.5
|
0.0
|
3.7
|
0.0
|
20.8
|
Reference: Calculation basis and definition
1. Capacity
Forecasts are limited to projects, which are expected
to go on stream by 2003, and collected and totaled by country and product
basis.
2. Production
In calculating future production, plant-operating ratio
was estimated in consideration of various factors possibly affecting
capacity and production. In cases where it was difficult to estimate
operation ratio, highest ratio in the past five years was used tentatively.
3. Demand: Domestic
(1) Actual demand
Calculated by deducting export from production and
import totals.
Domestic demand = (production + Import) ﾋﾆxport
(2) Demand forecast
Calculated by multiplying GDP by the value of elasticity
for each product. For ethylene and propylen, demand was calculated by
multiplying derivative production.
4. Supply and demand balance
Calculated by deducting demand from production by country
and product basis.
Supply and demand balance = production ﾋﾅemand
Note: Forecasts are made on the above basis in
principle. Other methods are used in case they are effective.
|
