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Steel Demand Prospects for the First Quarter of FY2017 (April–June 2017)

Total steel demand for the first quarter of FY2017 (April–June 2017) is estimated to be 23.30 million tons, a slight decrease of 1.9% from the previous quarter, and remain about the same on a year-on-year basis, i.e., +0.9%. The sector-by-sector breakdown is as follows:

Domestic demand:

  • Construction:
    • Steel demand in the architecture sector will increase from the previous quarter due to seasonal factors, while that for civil engineering will decrease. As a result, steel demand will decrease in the construction sector as a whole. On a year-on-year basis, demand in housing construction will decrease, in contrast to an increase in construction starts of houses for rent triggered by inheritance tax control, while demand for non-housing construction will increase due to an increase in the architecture sector triggered by the robust demand for distribution facilities, urban redevelopment projects and other factors as well as due to an increase in demand for the civil engineering sector because of urban redevelopment projects and other factors. As a result, steel demand will increase in the construction sector as a whole.
  • Manufacturing:
    • Steel demand in the manufacturing sector will decrease from the previous quarter due to seasonal factors, while demand for automobiles will increase due to the recovery in the number of registered vehicles from the effects of introducing new car models. On a year-on-year basis, demand in the sector will increase in contrast to last year’s shutdown of automobile plants affected by the earthquakes that occurred in Kumamoto Prefecture and other factors, as well as due to the leveling-off of the reaction to emissions regulations targeting construction machinery.

Steel exports:

Steel exports will increase slightly from the previous quarter due to a recovery of demand for automobiles in Asian and other countries and demand for construction machinery, while those will remain flat on a year-on-year basis.

Crude steel demand for this quarter is estimated to be 25.99 million tons, decreasing by 0.4% from the previous quarter and also decreasing by 0.8% on a year-on-year basis.

Reference for Demand Prospects (Fourth Quarter of FY2017 (April–June 2017)

1. Trends in Crude Steel Production (Unit: thousand tons)

  FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017
1Q 27,498 28,081 27,672 25,858 26,210 25,990
2Q 27,260 27,737 27,891 26,197 26,339  
3Q 25,909 28,139 27,537 26,335 26,386  
4Q 26,638 27,567 26,745 25,839 26,094  
Total 107,305 111,524 109,844 104,229 105,029 25,990

Note 1) The data for the third quarter of FY2016 is from forecasts and the data for the fourth quarter of FY2016 represents prospects.

2. Ordinary Steel: Sector-by-Sector Domestic Consumption (Unit: thousand tons)

Sector FY 2016 1Q Actual consumption FY 2016 4Q Consumption Forecast FY 2017 1Q Prospects Year-on- Year Change Change Compared with the Previous Quarter’s Forecast
Construction 5,056 5,326 5,136 1.6% −3.6%
  Civil Engineering 1,505 1,840 1,571 4.4% −14.6%
  Architecture 3,551 3,486 3,565 0.4% 2.3%
Manufacturing 6,574 6,964 6,644 1.1% −4.6%
  Shipbuilding 1,056 1,019 1,013 −4.1% −0.6%
  Motor Vehicles 2,620 2,891 2,691 2.7% −6.9%
  Industrial Machinery 1,070 1,096 1,102 3.0% 0.5%
  Electrical Machinery 704 763 714 1.4% −6.4%
  Secondary Products 543 597 552 1.7% −7.5%
  Containers 283 282 275 −2.8% −2.5%
  Other 298 316 297 −0.3% −6.0%
Total 11,630 12,290 11,780 1.3% −4.1%

Note 2) The quantity is estimated mainly based on demand-related statistics.

Release date

April 6, 2017

Division in Charge

Metal Industries Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau

Related website

Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry1-3-1 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8901, Japan Tel: +81-(0)3-3501-1511
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