July 9, 2018
Total steel demand for the second quarter of FY 2018 (July-September 2018) is estimated to be 23.75 million tons, remaining flat on a year-on-year basis, i.e., an increase of 0.7%, and an increase of 2.8% from the previous quarter. The sector-by-sector breakdown is as follows:
Steel demand will remain flat in the construction sector as a whole on a year-on-year basis due to an expected decrease in the demand for new housing and housing for rent, while steady movements are estimated in the public and private civil engineering sectors and steady movements will also be seen in the demand for non-housing associated with a moderate increase in facility investment in the private sector, such as urban redevelopment in the Tokyo area, properties related to the Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games, and other projects. From the previous quarter, steel demand in the construction sector will increase due to seasonal factors.
Steel demand in the manufacturing sector will slightly increase on a year-on-year basis due to the estimation of steady movements in the demand for industrial machinery, while the demand is estimated to be sluggish in shipbuilding. From the previous quarter, steel demand in the manufacturing sector will remain flat due to an increase in demand in the automobile and industrial machinery sectors derived from a seasonal factor, i.e., the first half end of the fiscal year.
Steel exports will slightly increase on a year-on-year basis in contrast to a decrease in export volumes resulting from production facility problems last year. Steel exports are estimated to increase from the previous quarter.
Crude steel demand for this quarter is estimated to be 26.54 million tons, an increase of 2.3% on a year-on-year basis and remaining the same as that in the previous quarter, i.e., 0.0%.
Steel Demand Prospects for the Second Quarter of FY2018 (July-September 2018)
- Crude steel demand equivalent to shipment: 26.54 million tons
Year-on-year change: (25.94 million tons) ＋2.3%
Change from the previous quarter’s forecast: (26.53 million tons) +0.0%
- Ordinary steel: Inventory of makers and wholesalers
Inventory of makers and wholesalers (end-December forecast): 6.77 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.15 months
Inventory for domestic market among the above inventory (end-December forecast): 5.95 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.53 months
- The figures in parentheses show the quantity for the same period of the previous year, or the previous quarter’s forecast for comparison purposes (unit: million tons)
- The total steel amount does not always correspond to the combination of subtotals since those figures are calculated per thousand tons.
Reference for Demand Prospects (Second Quarter of FY2018 (July-September 2018))1. Trends in Crude Steel Production
Note 1) The data for the first quarter of FY2018 is the forecast result, and data for the second quarter of FY2018 represents prospects.2. Ordinary Steel: Sector-by-Sector Domestic Consumption
Note 2) Quantity is mainly estimated based on demand-related statistics.
Division in Charge
Metal Industries Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau