October 9, 2018
Total steel demand for the third quarter of FY2018 (October-December 2018) is estimated to be 23.69 million tons, remaining nearly flat on a year-on-year basis with an increase by 0.3%, and a slight increase by 1.5% from the previous quarter.
The sector-by-sector breakdown is as follows:
Steel demand will slightly decrease in the construction sector as a whole on a year-on-year basis due to an expected peaking out in the demand in the housing sector, while steady movements are estimated in the demand for non-housing associated with an increase in facility investment in the private sector, such as urban redevelopment in the Tokyo area, properties related to the Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games, factories and other projects. From the previous quarter, steel demand in the construction sector will slightly increase due to seasonal factors.
Steel demand in the manufacturing sector will slightly increase as a whole on a year-on-year basis due to expected steady movements mainly in overseas demand, such as demand in the automobile, construction machinery and industrial machinery sectors. From the previous quarter, steel demand in the manufacturing sector will also slightly increase due to the expectation for recovery of production in the automobile sector in the areas affected by the heavy rain in western Japan and other factors.
Steel exports will remain flat on a year-on-year basis although the demand in Asian countries tends to increase in general. Steel exports are estimated to remain flat from the previous quarter.
3. Crude steel demand for this quarter is estimated to be 26.45 million tons, an increase by 0.2% on a year-on-year basis and an increase by 2.1% from the previous quarter.
Steel Demand Prospects for the Third Quarter of FY2018 (October - December 2018)
(Unit: million tons)
|Ordinary Steel||Special Steel|
|Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast||23.34||+1.5%||18.34||+1.2%||5.00||+2.6%|
|1) Domestic Demand||16.20||12.66||3.54|
|Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast||15.92||+1.8%||12.49||+1.4%||3.43||+0.3%|
|Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast||7.42||+0.9%||5.85||+0.9%||1.57||+1.0%|
- Crude steel demand equivalent to shipment: 26.45 million tons
Year-on-year change: (26.39 million tons) ＋0.2%
Change from the previous quarter’s forecast: (25.90 million tons) +2.1%
- Ordinary steel: Inventory of makers and wholesalers
Inventory of makers and wholesalers (end-September forecast): 6.89 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.16 months
Inventory for domestic market among the above inventory (end-September forecast): 5.90 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.48 months
- The figures in parentheses show the quantity for the same period of the previous year, or the previous quarter’s forecast for comparison purposes (unit: million tons)
- The total steel amount does not always correspond to the combination of subtotals since those figures are calculated per thousand tons.
Reference for Demand Prospects (Third Quarter of FY2018 (October-December 2018))
1.Trends in Crude Steel Production
(Unit: thousand tons)
Note 1) The data for the second quarter of FY2018 is the forecast result, and data for the third quarter of FY2018 represents prospects.
2.Ordinary Steel: Sector-by-Sector Domestic Consumption
(Unit: thousand tons)
|FY2018-3Q Prospects||Year-on- Year Change||Change Compared with the Previous Quarter’s Forecast|
Note 2) Quantity is mainly estimated based on demand-related statistics.
Division in Charge
Metal Industries Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau