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Steel Demand Prospects for the Third Quarter of FY2018 (October-December 2018)

October 9, 2018

Total steel demand for the third quarter of FY2018 (October-December 2018) is estimated to be 23.69 million tons, remaining nearly flat on a year-on-year basis with an increase by 0.3%, and a slight increase by 1.5% from the previous quarter.

The sector-by-sector breakdown is as follows:

1.Domestic demand

2.Exports

Steel exports will remain flat on a year-on-year basis although the demand in Asian countries tends to increase in general. Steel exports are estimated to remain flat from the previous quarter.

3. Crude steel demand for this quarter is estimated to be 26.45 million tons, an increase by 0.2% on a year-on-year basis and an increase by 2.1% from the previous quarter.
 

Steel Demand Prospects for the Third Quarter of FY2018 (October - December 2018)

(Unit: million tons)

  Total Steel
  Ordinary Steel Special Steel
Steel Demand 23.69   18.56   5.13  
  Year-on-year change 23.62 +0.3% 18.45 +0.6% 5.17 -0.7%
  Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast 23.34 +1.5% 18.34 +1.2% 5.00 +2.6%
  1) Domestic Demand 16.20   12.66   3.54  
  Year-on-year change 16.16 +0.2% 12.63 +0.2% 3.53 +0.3%
  Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast 15.92 +1.8% 12.49 +1.4% 3.43 +0.3%
  2) Export 7.49   5.90   1.59  
  Year-on-year change 7.45 +0.5% 5.82 +1.3% 1.63 -2.7%
  Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast 7.42 +0.9% 5.85 +0.9% 1.57 +1.0%
References Notes:

Reference for Demand Prospects (Third Quarter of FY2018 (October-December 2018))

1.Trends in Crude Steel Production

(Unit: thousand tons)

  FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018
1Q 28,081 27,672 25,858 26,209 26,094 26,565
2Q 27,737 27,891 26,197 26,334 25,942 25,900
3Q 28,139 27,537 26,335 26,393 26,395  26,450
4Q 27,567 26,745 25,839 26,230 26,406  
Total 111,524 109,844 104,229 105,166 104,837  78,915

Note 1) The data for the second quarter of FY2018 is the forecast result, and data for the third quarter of FY2018 represents prospects.

2.Ordinary Steel: Sector-by-Sector Domestic Consumption

(Unit: thousand tons)

Sector FY2017-3Q
Actual Consumption
FY2018-2Q
Consumption Forecast
FY2018-3Q Prospects Year-on- Year Change Change Compared with the Previous Quarter’s Forecast
Construction 5,567 5,386 5,484 -1.5% +1.8%
  Civil Engineering 1,863 1,607 1,796 -3.6% +11.8%
  Architecture 3,704 3,779 3,688 -0.4% -2.4%
Manufacturing 7,063 7,104 7,176 +1.6% +1.0%
  Shipbuilding 1,031 1,021 1,050 +1.8% +2.8%
  Motor Vehicles 2,830 2,837 2,863 +1.2% +0.9%
  Industrial Machinery 1,256 1,325 1,308 +4.1% -1.3%
  Electrical Machinery 765 785 773 +1.0% -1.5%
  Secondary Products 570 552 578 +1.4% +4.7%
  Containers 298 275 289 -3.0% +5.1%
  Other 313 309 315 +0.6% +1.9%
Total 12,630 12,490 12,660 +0.2% +1.4%

Note 2) Quantity is mainly estimated based on demand-related statistics.

Division in Charge

Metal Industries Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau

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