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Steel Demand Prospects for the Fourth Quarter of FY2018 (January-March 2019)

December 27, 2018

Total steel demand for the fourth quarter of FY2018 (January-March 2019) is estimated to be 23.59 million tons, showing a slight decrease of 1.1% on a year-on-year basis and remaining flat from the previous quarter, i.e., an increase by 0.0%.

The sector-by-sector breakdown is as follows:
 

1. Domestic demand

2. Exports

Steel exports will decrease on a year-on-year basis due to the restricted production capacity associated with an increase in domestic demand. From the previous quarter, steel exports are estimated to slightly increase.

3. Crude steel demand for this quarter is estimated to be 26.31 million tons, a decrease by 0.4% on a year-on-year basis and an increase by 1.7% from the previous quarter.

Steel Demand Prospects for the Fourth Quarter of FY2018 (January - March 2019)

(Unit: million tons)

  Total Steel
  Ordinary Steel Special Steel
Steel Demand 23.59   18.38   5.21  
  Year-on-year change 23.85 -1.1% 18.60 -1.2% 5.26 -0.9%
  Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast 23.58 0.0% 18.48 -0.5% 5.10 +2.1%
  1) Domestic Demand 16.15   12.53   3.62  
  Year-on-year change 16.17 -0.1% 12.52 0.0% 3.65 -0.8%
  Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast 16.23 -0.5% 12.68 -1.2% 3.55 +1.8%
  2) Export 7.44   5.85   1.59  
  Year-on-year change 7.68 -3.2% 6.08 -3.7% 1.61 -1.2%
  Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast 7.35 +1.2% 5.80 +0.9% 1.55 +2.6%
References Notes:

Reference for Demand Prospects (Fourth Quarter of FY2018 (January - March 2019))

1.Trends in Crude Steel Production

(Unit: thousand tons)

  FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018
1Q 28,081 27,672 25,858 26,209 26,094 26,565
2Q 27,737 27,891 26,197 26,334 25,942 25,654
3Q 28,139 27,537 26,335 26,393 26,395  25,865
4Q 27,567 26,745 25,839 26,230 26,406  26,310
Total 111,524 109,844 104,229 105,166 104,837  104,394

Note 1) The data for the third quarter of FY2018 is the forecast result, and data for the fourth quarter of FY2018 represents prospects.

2.Ordinary Steel: Sector-by-Sector Domestic Consumption

(Unit: thousand tons)

Sector FY2017-4Q
Actual Consumption
FY2018-3Q
Consumption Forecast
FY2018-4Q Prospects Year-on- Year Change Change Compared with the Previous Quarter’s Forecast
Construction 5,338 5,503 5,311 -0.5% -3.5%
  Civil Engineering 1,813 1,782 1,853 +2.2% +4.0%
  Architecture 3,525 3,721 3,458 -1.9% -7.1%
Manufacturing 7,186 7,177 7,219 +0.5% +0.6%
  Shipbuilding 993 993 992 -0.1% -0.1%
  Motor Vehicles 2,948 2,930 2,971 +0.8% +1.4%
  Industrial Machinery 1,291 1,325 1,333 +3.3% +0.6%
  Electrical Machinery 807 776 808 +0.1% +4.1%
  Secondary Products 560 571 561 +0.2% -1.8%
  Containers 273 296 265 -2.9% -10.5%
  Other 314 286 289 -8.0% +1.0%
Total 12,524 12,680 12,530 0.0% -1.2%

Note 2) Quantity is mainly estimated based on demand-related statistics.

Division in Charge

Metal Industries Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau

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