December 27, 2018
Total steel demand for the fourth quarter of FY2018 (January-March 2019) is estimated to be 23.59 million tons, showing a slight decrease of 1.1% on a year-on-year basis and remaining flat from the previous quarter, i.e., an increase by 0.0%.
1. Domestic demand
Steel demand will remain flat in the construction sector as a whole on a year-on-year basis due to an expected sluggishness in the demand for housing for rent, while steady movements are estimated in the demand for non-housing associated with an increase in facility investment in the private sector, such as urban redevelopment in the Tokyo area, properties related to the Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games, plants and other projects. From the previous quarter, steel demand in the construction sector will decrease due to seasonal factors.
Steel demand in the manufacturing sector will remain flat as a whole on a year-on-year basis due to expected steady movements in the demand for automobiles, construction machinery, industrial machinery and others. From the previous quarter, steel demand in the manufacturing sector will also remain flat due to a seasonal factor, i.e., fiscal year end.
Steel exports will decrease on a year-on-year basis due to the restricted production capacity associated with an increase in domestic demand. From the previous quarter, steel exports are estimated to slightly increase.
3. Crude steel demand for this quarter is estimated to be 26.31 million tons, a decrease by 0.4% on a year-on-year basis and an increase by 1.7% from the previous quarter.
Steel Demand Prospects for the Fourth Quarter of FY2018 (January - March 2019)
(Unit: million tons)
|Ordinary Steel||Special Steel|
|Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast||23.58||0.0%||18.48||-0.5%||5.10||+2.1%|
|1) Domestic Demand||16.15||12.53||3.62|
|Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast||16.23||-0.5%||12.68||-1.2%||3.55||+1.8%|
|Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast||7.35||+1.2%||5.80||+0.9%||1.55||+2.6%|
- Crude steel demand equivalent to shipment: 26.31 million tons
Year-on-year change: (26.41 million tons) -0.4%
Change from the previous quarter’s forecast: (25.87 million tons) +1.7%
- Ordinary steel: Inventory of makers and wholesalers
Inventory of makers and wholesalers (end-September forecast): 6.87 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.14 months
Inventory for domestic market among the above inventory (end-September forecast): 5.71 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.39 months
- The figures in parentheses show the quantity for the same period of the previous year, or the previous quarter’s forecast for comparison purposes (unit: million tons)
- The total steel amount does not always correspond to the combination of subtotals since those figures are calculated per thousand tons.
Reference for Demand Prospects (Fourth Quarter of FY2018 (January - March 2019))1.Trends in Crude Steel Production
(Unit: thousand tons)
Note 1) The data for the third quarter of FY2018 is the forecast result, and data for the fourth quarter of FY2018 represents prospects.2.Ordinary Steel: Sector-by-Sector Domestic Consumption
(Unit: thousand tons)
|FY2018-4Q Prospects||Year-on- Year Change||Change Compared with the Previous Quarter’s Forecast|
Note 2) Quantity is mainly estimated based on demand-related statistics.
Division in Charge
Metal Industries Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau