April 9, 2019
Total steel demand for the first quarter of FY2019 (April-June 2019) is estimated to be 22.93 million tons, remaining relatively flat on a year-on-year basis as well as from the previous quarter, with increases of 0.1% and 0.9%, respectively.
The sector-by-sector breakdown is as follows:
1. Domestic demand
Steel demand in the construction sector will slightly increase on a year-on-year basis due to: an increase expected in the demand in the civil engineering sector for large-scale public investment in association with the initiatives for building national resilience, e.g., construction for recovering from damage caused by disasters; and an increase expected in the demand in the architecture sector backed by the last-minute demand for housing before the consumption tax hike and steady progress estimated in the demand for non-housing, e.g., manufacturing facilities. From the previous quarter, steel demand in the construction sector will decrease due to seasonal factors.
Steel demand in the manufacturing sector will increase slightly on a year-on-year basis due to: an increase expected in the demand in the automobile sector backed by the effects of newly launched vehicles and the last-minute demand before the consumption tax hike; and steady movements expected in the demand in the construction machinery sector; while weak performance will be seen in some export and production businesses. From the previous quarter, steel demand in the manufacturing sector will decrease due to seasonal factors, i.e., fiscal year end.
Steel exports will remain flat on a year-on-year basis due to the sluggish demand for energy and a sense of uncertainty about the future global economy. From the previous quarter, steel exports will increase.
3. Crude steel demand
Crude steel demand for this quarter is estimated to be 26.57 million tons, remaining the same, i.e., 0.0%, on a year-on-year basis and an increase by 7.1% from the previous quarter.
Steel Demand Prospects for the First Quarter of FY2019 (April-June 2019)
|Ordinary Steel||Special Steel|
|Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast||22.74||0.9%||17.67||0.9%||5.07||7.0%|
|1) Domestic Demand||15.76||12.18||3.58|
|Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast||16.11||-2.2%||12.54||-2.9%||3.57||0.3%|
|Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast||6.63||8.2%||5.13||10.1%||1.50||1.6%|
- Crude steel demand equivalent to shipment: 26.57 million tons
Year-on-year change: (26.56 million tons) +0.0%
Change from the previous quarter’s forecast: (24.80 million tons) 7.1%
- Ordinary steel: Inventory of makers and wholesalers
Inventory of makers and wholesalers (end-March forecast): 6.82 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.19 months
Inventory for the domestic market among the above inventory (end-March forecast): 5.94 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.48 months
- The figures in parentheses show the quantity for the same period of the previous year, or the previous quarter’s forecast for comparison purposes (unit: million tons).
- The total steel amount does not always correspond to the combination of subtotals since those figures are calculated per thousand tons.
Division in Charge
Metal Industries Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau