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Steel Demand Prospects for the Second Quarter of FY2019 (July-September 2019)

July 9, 2019

Total steel demand for the second quarter of FY2019 (July-September 2019) is estimated to be 23.01 million tons, remaining flat on a year-on-year basis, i.e., an increase by 0.8%, and an increase by 3.0% from the previous quarter. The sector-by-sector breakdown is as follows:

Domestic demand:

- Construction:
Steel demand will remain flat on a year-on-year basis due to: an increase expected in the demand in the civil engineering sector for large-scale public investment in association with the national initiatives for building national resilience, e.g., construction for recovering from damages caused by disasters, while the demand in the construction sector backed by the last-minutes demand for housing before the consumption tax hike is expected to be completed. From the previous quarter, steel demand in the construction sector will increase due to seasonal factors.

- Manufacturing:
Steel demand in the manufacturing sector will remain flat on a year-on-year basis due to: an increase expected in the demand in the automobile sector backed by the effects of newly launched vehicles and the last-minute demand before the consumption tax hike, and steady performance expected in the demand in the construction machinery sector, while weak performance will remain in some export and production businesses. From the previous quarter, steel demand in the manufacturing sector will increase due to seasonal factors, i.e., a fiscal year end.

- Exports
Steel exports will slightly increase on a year-on-year basis in contrast to the low level of the demand due to the impact derived from the occurrence of natural disasters. From the previous quarter, steel exports will increase.

- Crude steel demand for this quarter is estimated to be 25.89 million tons, an increase by 0.9% on a year-on-year basis and an increase by 0.3% from the previous quarter.

Steel Demand Prospects for the Second Quarter of FY2019 (July-September 2019)

(Unit: million tons)

  Total Steel
  Ordinary Steel Special Steel
Steel Demand 23.01   17.99   5.02  
  Year-on-year change 22.83 0.8% 17.82 1.0% 5.01 0.0%
  Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast 22.35 3.0% 17.44 3.2% 4.91 2.1%
  1) Domestic Demand 15.87   12.32   3.55  
  Year-on-year change 15.81 0.4% 12.27 0.4% 3.54 0.3%
  Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast 15.50 2.4% 11.99 2.8% 3.51 1.2%
  2) Export 7.14   5.67   1.46  
  Year-on-year change 7.02 1.7% 5.55 2.2% 1.47 -0.5%
  Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast 6.85 4.2% 5.45 4.1% 1.40 4.6%

References:

Notes:

Division in Charge

Metal Industries Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau

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