July 9, 2019
Total steel demand for the second quarter of FY2019 (July-September 2019) is estimated to be 23.01 million tons, remaining flat on a year-on-year basis, i.e., an increase by 0.8%, and an increase by 3.0% from the previous quarter. The sector-by-sector breakdown is as follows:
Steel demand will remain flat on a year-on-year basis due to: an increase expected in the demand in the civil engineering sector for large-scale public investment in association with the national initiatives for building national resilience, e.g., construction for recovering from damages caused by disasters, while the demand in the construction sector backed by the last-minutes demand for housing before the consumption tax hike is expected to be completed. From the previous quarter, steel demand in the construction sector will increase due to seasonal factors.
Steel demand in the manufacturing sector will remain flat on a year-on-year basis due to: an increase expected in the demand in the automobile sector backed by the effects of newly launched vehicles and the last-minute demand before the consumption tax hike, and steady performance expected in the demand in the construction machinery sector, while weak performance will remain in some export and production businesses. From the previous quarter, steel demand in the manufacturing sector will increase due to seasonal factors, i.e., a fiscal year end.
Steel exports will slightly increase on a year-on-year basis in contrast to the low level of the demand due to the impact derived from the occurrence of natural disasters. From the previous quarter, steel exports will increase.
- Crude steel demand for this quarter is estimated to be 25.89 million tons, an increase by 0.9% on a year-on-year basis and an increase by 0.3% from the previous quarter.
Steel Demand Prospects for the Second Quarter of FY2019 (July-September 2019)
(Unit: million tons)
|Ordinary Steel||Special Steel|
|Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast||22.35||3.0%||17.44||3.2%||4.91||2.1%|
|1) Domestic Demand||15.87||12.32||3.55|
|Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast||15.50||2.4%||11.99||2.8%||3.51||1.2%|
|Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast||6.85||4.2%||5.45||4.1%||1.40||4.6%|
- Crude steel demand equivalent to shipment: 25.89 million tons
Year-on-year change: (25.65 million tons) 0.9%
Change from the previous quarter’s forecast: (25.82 million tons) 0.3%
- Ordinary steel: Inventory of makers and wholesalers
Inventory of makers and wholesalers (end-June forecast): 7.07 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.26 months
Inventory for the domestic market among the above inventory (end-June forecast): 6.31 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.66 months
- The figures in parentheses show the quantity for the same period of the previous year, or the previous quarter’s forecast for comparison purposes (unit: million tons).
- The total steel amount does not always correspond to the combination of subtotals since those figures are calculated per thousand tons.
Division in Charge
Metal Industries Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau