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Steel Demand Prospects for the Third Quarter of FY2019 (October-December 2019)

October 8, 2019

Total steel demand for the third quarter of FY2019 (October-December 2019) is estimated to be 22.92 million tons, a decrease by 2.9% from the previous year, and a slight increase by 1.1% from the previous quarter’s forecast. The sector-by-sector breakdown is as follows:

 
  • Domestic demand:
    Construction:
    Steel demand in the construction sector will slightly increase on a year-on-year basis and increase from the previous quarter’s forecast as expected sluggish demand in the architecture sector due to the termination of inheritance tax control and the effect of low-interest rates and other factors in housing architecture will be offset by an expected increase in the demand in the civil engineering sector for large-scale public investment in association with the national initiatives for building national resilience, e.g., construction for recovering from damages caused by disasters.
    Manufacturing:
    Steel demand in the manufacturing sector will decrease on a year-on-year basis and remain flat from the previous quarter’s forecast due to: continuous weakness in exports and production caused by the current tensions surrounding commercial issues, uncertainty about the future of the Chinese economy and other factors; and an expected decrease as a reaction to measures for the last-minute demand before the consumption tax hike.
  • Exports
    Steel exports will slightly decrease on a year-on-year basis and remain flat from the previous quarter’s forecast due to the weakness in environments surrounding demand caused by deterioration of overseas market conditions.
  • Crude steel demand for this quarter is estimated to be 25.69 million tons, a decrease by 0.1% on a year-on-year basis and an increase by 0.8% from the previous quarter’s forecast.

Steel Demand Prospects for the Third Quarter of FY2019 (October-December 2019)

(Unit: million tons)

  Total Steel
  Ordinary Steel Special Steel
Steel Demand 22.92   18.33   4.60  
  Year-on-year change 23.60 -2.9% 18.38 -0.3% 5.22 -12.0%
  Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast 22.68 1.1% 18.07 1.4% 4.61 -0.2%
  1) Domestic Demand 15.73   12.45   3.28  
  Year-on-year change 16.31 -3.6% 12.60 -1.2% 3.71 -11.6%
  Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast 15.45 1.8% 12.20 2.0% 3.25 0.9%
  2) Export 7.19   5.88   1.32  
  Year-on-year change 7.30 -1.4% 5.78 1.6% 1.51 -13.0%
  Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast 7.23 -0.4% 5.87 0.1% 1.36 -2.9%
References:
Notes:

Division in Charge

Metal Industries Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau

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