October 8, 2019
Total steel demand for the third quarter of FY2019 (October-December 2019) is estimated to be 22.92 million tons, a decrease by 2.9% from the previous year, and a slight increase by 1.1% from the previous quarter’s forecast. The sector-by-sector breakdown is as follows:
- Domestic demand:
Construction:Steel demand in the construction sector will slightly increase on a year-on-year basis and increase from the previous quarter’s forecast as expected sluggish demand in the architecture sector due to the termination of inheritance tax control and the effect of low-interest rates and other factors in housing architecture will be offset by an expected increase in the demand in the civil engineering sector for large-scale public investment in association with the national initiatives for building national resilience, e.g., construction for recovering from damages caused by disasters.Manufacturing:Steel demand in the manufacturing sector will decrease on a year-on-year basis and remain flat from the previous quarter’s forecast due to: continuous weakness in exports and production caused by the current tensions surrounding commercial issues, uncertainty about the future of the Chinese economy and other factors; and an expected decrease as a reaction to measures for the last-minute demand before the consumption tax hike.
Steel exports will slightly decrease on a year-on-year basis and remain flat from the previous quarter’s forecast due to the weakness in environments surrounding demand caused by deterioration of overseas market conditions.
- Crude steel demand for this quarter is estimated to be 25.69 million tons, a decrease by 0.1% on a year-on-year basis and an increase by 0.8% from the previous quarter’s forecast.
Steel Demand Prospects for the Third Quarter of FY2019 (October-December 2019)
(Unit: million tons)
|Ordinary Steel||Special Steel|
|Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast||22.68||1.1%||18.07||1.4%||4.61||-0.2%|
|1) Domestic Demand||15.73||12.45||3.28|
|Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast||15.45||1.8%||12.20||2.0%||3.25||0.9%|
|Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast||7.23||-0.4%||5.87||0.1%||1.36||-2.9%|
- Crude steel demand equivalent to shipment: 25.69 million tons
Year-on-year change: (25.70 million tons) -0.1%
Change from the previous quarter’s forecast: (25.48 million tons) 0.8%
- Ordinary steel: Inventory of makers and wholesalers
Inventory of makers and wholesalers (end-September forecast): 7.13 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.27 months
Inventory for the domestic market among the above inventory (end-September forecast): 6.07 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.65 months
- The figures in parentheses show the quantity for the same period of the previous year, or the previous quarter’s forecast for comparison purposes (unit: million tons).
- The total steel amount does not always correspond to the combination of subtotals since those figures are calculated per thousand tons.
Division in Charge
Metal Industries Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau