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Forecast of Global Supply and Demand Trends for Petrochemical Products (from 2010 to 2023) Compiled

October 17, 2019

The Study Group on Global Supply and Demand Trends for Petrochemical Products has been organized by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) with the mission of properly surveying and analyzing domestic and overseas supply and demand trends for petrochemical products within the changing circumstances surrounding the Japanese petrochemical industry as well as leading the results to business management, policies and other advantages.

METI hereby announces that the study group has completed a study on trends for the period from 2010 to 2017 and produced a forecast for the period from 2018 to 2023 concerning global supply and demand for petrochemical products, such as ethylene derivatives, propylene derivatives, and aromatic products (demand, production capacity and volume).

1. Global demand for petrochemical products in 2017 and forecast for 2018 to 2023

  1. Global demand for ethylene derivatives (ethylene equivalent) in 2017 steadily increased by 5.4% from the previous year to reach 149.7 million tons while prices of crude oil and petroleum products continued fluctuating.

  2. Regarding the forecast for 2018 to 2023, global demand (ethylene equivalent) is estimated to reach 182.5 million tons in 2023 (up by 32.8 million tons from 2017), with the estimated average annual growth rate being 3.2% for the period from 2018 to 2023.

2. Features by region

  1. Demand for petrochemical products (ethylene equivalent) in Asia as a whole is estimated to expand continuously as the average annual growth rate is expected to account for 4.0% for the period from 2018 to 2023. In 2023, demand in Asia is expected to account for over 50% of total global demand.

  2. The economy of the United States continues brisk performance mainly in the growth of private consumption, although a sense of uncertainty about the future economy is seen, and the petrochemical industry is brisk both in recent supply and demand backed by large-scale infrastructure investment. The average annual growth rate of ethylene equivalent demand for the period from 2018 to 2023 is estimated to decrease to 1.8% from 2.3% for the period from 2010 to 2017.

  3. The petrochemical industry in the Middle East has been advancing efforts to expand business to downstream industries to acquire domestic demand, realize globalization and create high-value-added products. As no change is seen in the region’s position as the global supply base of petrochemical products, the average annual growth rate of petrochemical product demand for the period from 2018 to 2023 is estimated to account for 3.9% in ethylene equivalent demand.
(Note) The survey results were analyzed based on the data available at the time of convening the study group and releasing the results of a variety of statistics, and forecasts may differ due to future changes in political situations or other factors.

Division in Charge

Material Industries Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau