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Steel Demand Prospects for the Fourth Quarter of FY2019 (January-March 2020)

December 24, 2019

Total steel demand for the fourth quarter of FY2019 (January-March 2020) is estimated to be 21.65 million tons, i.e., a decrease by 2.5% from the previous year, and remaining flat at 0.3% from the previous quarter’s forecast. The sector-by-sector breakdown is as follows:

  • Domestic demand:

    Construction:
    Steel demand in the construction sector will remain flat on a year-on-year basis and decrease from the previous quarter’s forecast as demand in the architecture sector is expected to remain sluggish due to: the pause of housing construction for inheritance tax control, the completion of the effect of low-interest rates, and other factors in housing architecture, while an increase is expected in the demand in the civil engineering sector for large-scale public investment in association with the national initiatives for building national resilience, e.g., construction for recovering from damages caused by disasters.

    Manufacturing:
    Steel demand in the manufacturing sector will decrease on a year-on-year basis and slightly decrease from the previous quarter’s forecast due to expected continuous weakness in exports and production caused by the trends surrounding commercial issues, the slowdown of the Chinese economy and other factors.

  • Steel exports:

    Steel exports will increase on a year-on-year basis since the level of production for export was low resulting from production facility problems. From the previous quarter, steel exports are estimated to increase as well.

Crude steel demand for this quarter is estimated to be 24.31 million tons, a decrease by 2.6% on a year-on-year basis and an increase by 0.9% from the previous quarter.

Steel Demand Prospects for the Fourth Quarter of FY2019 (January-March 2020)
(Unit: million tons)

  Total Steel
  Ordinary Steel Special Steel
Steel Demand 21.65   17.07   4.58  
  Year-on-year change 22.22 -2.5% 17.15 -0.5% 5.06 -9.5%
  Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast 21.59 0.3% 17.19 -0.7% 4.40 4.2%
  1) Domestic Demand 14.96   11.67   3.29  
  Year-on-year change 15.89 -5.8% 12.22 -4.5% 3.67 -10.3%
  Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast 15.13 -1.2% 11.98 -2.6% 3.15 4.2%
  2) Export 6.70   5.40   1.30  
  Year-on-year change 6.33 5.8% 4.93 9.5% 1.40 -7.4%
  Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast 6.46 3.7% 5.21 3.6% 1.24 4.2%
References:

Notes:

Related Document

Division in Charge

Metal Industries Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau

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