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Steel Demand Prospects for the First Quarter of FY2020 (April-June 2020)

April 9, 2020

Total steel demand for the first quarter of FY2020 (April-June 2020) is estimated to be 18.28 million tons, i.e., a decrease by 18.1% on a year-on-year basis, and a decrease by 12.1% from the previous quarter’s forecast.
 
  • Domestic demand:
    Construction:
    Steel demand in the construction sector will decrease not only on a year-on-year basis but also from the previous quarter’s forecast since: demand in the civil engineering sector is expected to increase for large-scale public investment in association with the national initiatives for building national resilience, e.g., construction for recovering from damages caused by disasters, while demand for housing and non-housing in the architecture sector is expected to remain sluggish.

    Manufacturing:
    Steel demand in the manufacturing sector will decrease not only on a year-on-year basis but also from the previous quarter’s forecast since there are concerns over risks of a downward swing in overseas economies and over negative impacts across supply chains, which may be caused by the novel coronavirus disease.

  • Steel exports:
    Steel exports will decrease not only on a year-on-year basis but also from the previous quarter’s forecast since demand is expected to show weak movement due to the slowdown of overseas economies.
 
Crude steel demand for this quarter is estimated to be 19.36 million tons, a decrease by 25.9% on a year-on-year basis and a decrease by 17.9% from the previous quarter’ forecast.
 
Note: Please note that these prospects reflect only part of the expected impacts on steel demand caused by the expansion of the novel coronavirus disease.

Steel Demand Prospects for the First Quarter of FY2020 (April-June 2020)
(Unit: million tons)

    Total Steel    
      Ordinary Steel Special Steel
Steel Demand 18.28 15.32 2.96
Year-on-year change (22.31) -18.1% (17.40) -12.0% (4.91) -39.7%
Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast (20.80) -12.1% (16.62) -7.8% (4.18) -29.1%
  1) Domestic Demand 12.88 10.82 2.06
  Year-on-year change (15.44) -16.6% (11.91) -9.2% (3.53) -41.7%
  Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast (14.14) -8.9% (11.20) -3.4% (2.94) -30.0%
  2) Export 5.40 4.50 0.90
  Year-on-year change (6.87) -21.4% (5.49) -18.1% (1.38) -34.8%
  Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast (6.65) -18.8% (5.42) -17.0% (1.23) -26.9%
 

References:

Crude steel demand equivalent to shipment: 19.36 million tons

Year-on-year change: (26.12 million tons) -25.9%
Change from the previous quarter’s forecast: (23.59 million tons) -17.9%
 

Ordinary steel: Inventory of makers and wholesalers

Inventory of makers and wholesalers (end-March forecast): 6.66 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.17 months
Inventory for the domestic market among the above inventory (end-March forecast): 5.88 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.51 months

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Metal Industries Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau

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