October 8, 2020
Total steel demand for the third quarter of FY2020 (October-December 2020) is estimated to be 19.45 million tons. The demand will decrease by 10.1% compared with 21.63 million tons in the previous year because of the pandemic of the novel coronavirus disease (hereinafter referred to as “coronavirus”), while it is estimated to increase by 4.1% compared with 18.68 million tons in the previous quarter’s forecast due to an increase in production activities of steel users as well as other factors.
Construction: Steel demand in the construction sector will decrease not only on a year-on-year basis but also from the previous quarter’s forecast due to various factors: demand in the civil engineering sector is expected to increase for public construction in relation to the initiatives for enhancing national resilience (e.g., renovation of aged infrastructure facilities and measures for disaster prevention and reduction), while demand in the architecture sector is expected to remain sluggish due to impacts of the coronavirus and other factors.
Manufacturing: Steel demand in the manufacturing sector will decrease on a year-on-year basis due to the impact of the coronavirus, while it will increase from the previous quarter’s forecast due to an increase in production activities of steel users, mainly of automobile manufacturers.
- Steel exports:
Steel exports will decrease on a year-on-year basis and increase slightly from the previous quarter’s forecast due to the impact of the coronavirus.
Crude steel demand for this quarter is estimated to be 21.11 million tons, a 10.7% decrease compared with 23.65 million tons in the previous year and a12.0 % increase compared with 18.84 million tons forecasted for the previous quarter.
Steel Demand Prospects for the Third Quarter of FY2020 (October-December 2020)
(Unit: million tons)
|Ordinary Steel||Special Steel|
|Year-on-year change||(21.63) -10.1%||(17.07) - 8.6%||(4.56) -15.6%|
|Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast||(18.68) +4.1%||(15.44) +1.0%||(3.24) +18.7%|
|1) Domestic Demand||13.25||10.40||2.85|
|Year-on-year change||(14.83) -10.7%||(11.61) -10.4%||(3.22) -11.5%|
|Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast||(12.57) +5.4%||(10.29) +1.1%||(2.28) +24.7%|
|Year-on-year change||(6.80) -8.7%||(5.46) -4.7%||(1.34) -25.2%|
|Change compared with the previous quarter’s forecast||(6.11) +1.5%||(5.15) +1.0%||(0.96) +4.6%|
Crude steel demand equivalent to steel products: 21.11 million tons
Year-on-year change: (23.65 million tons) -10.7%
Change from the previous quarter’s forecast: (18.84 million tons) +12.0%
Ordinary steel: Inventory of makers and wholesalers
Inventory of makers and wholesalers (end-September forecast): 6.27 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.33 months
Inventory for the domestic market among the above inventory (end-September forecast): 5.59 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.87 months
- The figures in parentheses show the quantity for the same period in the previous year, or the previous quarter’s forecast for comparison purposes (unit: million tons).
- The total steel amount does not always correspond to the aggregate of subtotals since those figures are calculated per thousand tons.
Division in Charge
Metal Industries Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau