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Steel Demand Prospects for the Fourth Quarter of FY2020 (January-March 2021)

Japanese

December 22, 2020

Manufacturing, Information, and Distribution/Service Policy
Total steel demand for the fourth quarter of FY2020 (January-March 2021) is estimated to be 20.64 million tons. The demand will decrease by 3.4% compared with 21.37 million tons in the previous year because of the global pandemic of the novel coronavirus disease (hereinafter referred to as “coronavirus”), while it is estimated to slightly increase by 1.6% compared with 20.32 million tons in the previous quarter’s forecast due to improving production activities by steel users and other factors.
 
  • Domestic demand:

    Construction: Steel demand in the construction sector will decrease not only on a year-on-year basis but also from the previous quarter’s forecast the reason being: although the civil engineering sector is expecting public construction in association with the national initiatives for building national resilience, e.g., renovation of aged infrastructure facilities and measures for disaster prevention/ reduction, demand in the architecture sector is expected to remain sluggish due to the revision of capital investment plans along with impacts of the coronavirus and other factors.

    Manufacturing: Steel demand in the manufacturing sector will decrease on a year-on-year basis due to a slowdown of inventory replenishment in supply chains and the persisting impacts of the coronavirus, while it will remain the same from the previous quarter’s forecast due to a continuing pickup in production activities by steel users.

  • Steel exports:
    Steel exports will decrease on a year-on-year basis due to impacts of the coronavirus and increase from the previous quarter’s forecast due to a pickup in economic activities.

Crude steel demand for this quarter is estimated to be 23.50 million tons, a decrease by 2.5% compared with 24.11 million tons in the previous year and an increase by 7.3 % compared with 21.90 million tons in the previous quarter’s forecast.

Steel Demand Prospects for the Fourth Quarter of FY2020 (January -March 2021)

(Unit: million tons)
  Total Steel
  Ordinary Steel Special Steel
Steel Demand 20.64 16.11 4.53
Year-on-year change (21.37) -3.4% (17.03) -5.4% (4.35) +4.3%
Change compared with the
previous quarter’s forecast		 (20.32) +1.6% (16.04) +0.4% (4.28) +5.9%
  1) Domestic Demand 13.95 10.71 3.24
Year-on-year change (14.16) -1.5% (11.12) -3.7% (3.04) +6.8%
Change compared with the
previous quarter’s forecast		 (14.27) -2.3% (11.10) -3.5% (3.17) +2.1%
2) Exports 6.69 5.40 1.29
Year-on-year change (7.21) -7.3% (5.90) -8.5% (1.31) -1.7%
Change compared with the
previous quarter’s forecast		 (6.04) +10.7% (4.94) +9.3% (1.10) +16.7%

References:

Crude steel demand equivalent to shipment: 23.50 million tons

Year-on-year change: (24.11 million tons) -2.5%
Change from the previous quarter’s forecast: (21.90 million tons) +7.3%

Ordinary steel: Inventory of makers and wholesalers

Inventory of makers and wholesalers (end-December forecast): 5.90 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.12 months
Inventory for the domestic market among the above inventory (end-December forecast): 5.23 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.45 months

Notes:

  • The figures in parentheses show the quantity for the same period of the previous year, or the previous quarter’s forecast for comparison purposes (unit: million tons).
  • The total steel amount does not always correspond to the aggregate of subtotals since those figures are calculated per thousand tons.

Division in Charge

Metal Industries Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau

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