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Steel Demand Prospects for the First Quarter of FY2021 (April-June 2021)
April 13, 2021
Total steel demand for the first quarter of FY2021 (April-June 2021) is estimated to be 20.61 million tons.
The demand will increase by 20.6% compared with 17.10 million tons in the previous year, which was low because of the novel coronavirus disease pandemic (hereinafter referred to as "coronavirus"), while it is estimated to decrease by 2.1% compared with 21.05 million tons in the previous quarter's forecast due to seasonal variation as well as other factors.
- Domestic demand:
Construction: Steel demand in the construction sector will decrease from the previous quarter's forecast due to seasonal variation in the civil engineering sector. It will also decrease on a year-on-year basis because of the slow recovery of the non-residential construction sector due to the impact of the coronavirus.
Manufacturing: While steel demand in the manufacturing sector will decrease from the previous quarter's forecast due to seasonal variation and other factors, production activities of steel users are on a recovery trend. Demand will increase on a year-on-year basis, rebounding from the low demand levels due to the impact of the coronavirus.
- Steel exports:
Steel exports will remain flat compared to the previous quarter's forecast, with expectations that economic activity will continue to pick up. It will increase on a year-on-year basis, rebounding from the low demand levels due to the impact of the coronavirus.
Crude steel demand for this quarter is estimated to be 23.24 million tons, a 28.3% increase compared with 18.12 million tons in the previous year and a slight decrease of 1.8 % compared with 23.67 million tons forecasted for the previous quarter.
Steel Demand Prospects for the First Quarter of FY2021 (April-June 2021)
| Total Steel | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ordinary Steel | Special Steel | |||
| Steel Demand | 20.61 | 16.18 | 4.43 | |
| Year-on-year change | (17.10) +20.6% | (14.25) +13.6% | (2.85) +55.6% | |
| Change compared with the previous quarter's forecast | (21.05) -2.1% | (16.53) -2.1% | (4.52) -1.8% | |
| (1) Domestic Demand | 13.69 | 10.51 | 3.18 | |
| Year-on-year change | (11.38) +20.3% | (9.39) +11.9% | (1.99) +59.9% | |
| Change compared with the previous quarter's forecast | (14.16) -3.3% | (10.87) -3.3% | (3.29) -3.5% | |
| (2) Exports | 6.92 | 5.67 | 1.25 | |
| Year-on-year change | (5.72) +21.1% | (4.86) +16.7% | (0.86) +45.7% | |
| Change compared with the previous quarter's forecast | (6.89) +0.5% | (5.66) +0.1% | (1.22) +2.5% | |
References:
Crude steel demand equivalent to steel products: 23.24 million tons
Year-on-year change: (18.12 million tons) +28.3%
Change compared with the previous quarter's forecast: (23.67 million tons) -1.8%
Ordinary steel: Inventory of makers and wholesalers
Inventory of makers and wholesalers (end-March forecast): 5.91 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.11 months
Inventory for the domestic market among the above inventory (end-March forecast): 5.27 million tons; Inventory turnover: 1.54 months
Division in Charge
Metal Industries Division, Manufacturing Industries Bureau